Sport Picks
Match Events
10'
10'
Barcola B.
Assist: Neves J.
28'
28'
Gusto M.
Assist: Fernandez E.
40'
40'
Dembele O.
AI Match Summary
PSG in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 5-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: PSG
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chelsea haven't matched PSG's recent run of results.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on PSG taking it.
- PSG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and PSG have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
PSG Clean Sheet 18%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | PSG | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 13 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2026 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
0:3
Mar 11, 2026 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
5:2
Jul 13, 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Chelsea vs PSG
3:0
Mar 9, 2016 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
1:2
Feb 16, 2016 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
PSG Compare
Top Goalscorer Kvaratskhelia K.
2 Goals Assists Leader Barcola B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Chelsea Compare
Top Goalscorer Gusto M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Fernandez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
PSG 40 / 100
Chelsea 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
PSG Chelsea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
PSG's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Chelsea let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.
Solid form: PSG remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
PSG VS Chelsea
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
PSG
(Home) 30 May
PSG
2 : 1 Arsenal
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1 PSG
13 May
Lens
0 : 2 PSG
10 May
PSG
1 : 0 Brest
06 May
Bayern Munich
1 : 1 PSG
Page 1 of 6
30 May
PSG
2 : 1 Arsenal
10 May
PSG
1 : 0 Brest
02 May
PSG
2 : 2 Lorient
28 Apr
PSG
5 : 4 Bayern Munich
22 Apr
PSG
3 : 0 Nantes
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Chelsea
(Away) 28 Jul
Chelsea
6 : 4 Western Sydney Wanderers
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1 Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1 Manchester City
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1 Chelsea
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0 Chelsea
21 Mar
Everton
3 : 0 Chelsea
11 Mar
PSG
5 : 2 Chelsea
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco4
PSG5
Chelsea-
TBD-
Galatasaray7
Juventus5
Liverpool-
TBD-
Benfica1
Real Madrid3
Manchester City-
TBD-
Dortmund3
Atalanta4
Bayern Munich-
TBD-
Qarabag Agdam3
Newcastle Utd9
Barcelona-
TBD-
Club Brugge4
Atl. Madrid7
Tottenham-
TBD-
Bodo/Glimt5
Inter2
Sporting CP-
TBD-
Olympiacos Piraeus0
Bayer Leverkusen2
Arsenal-
TBD-
1/8-finals
PSG8
Chelsea2
Galatasaray1
Liverpool4
Real Madrid5
Manchester City1
Atalanta2
Bayern Munich10
Newcastle Utd3
Barcelona8
Atl. Madrid7
Tottenham5
Bodo/Glimt3
Sporting CP5
Bayer Leverkusen1
Arsenal3
Quarter-finals
PSG4
Liverpool0
Real Madrid4
Bayern Munich6
Barcelona2
Atl. Madrid3
Sporting CP0
Arsenal1
Semi-finals
PSG6
Bayern Munich5
Atl. Madrid1
Arsenal2
Final
PSG2
Arsenal1
