Sport Picks
Match Events
10'
10'
Barcola B.
Assist: Neves J.
28'
28'
Gusto M.
Assist: Fernandez E.
40'
40'
Dembele O.
AI Match Summary
PSG in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 5-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: PSG
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chelsea haven't matched PSG's recent run of results.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on PSG taking it.
- PSG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and PSG have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
PSG Clean Sheet 10%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | PSG | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 18 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2026 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
0:3
Mar 11, 2026 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
5:2
Jul 13, 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Chelsea vs PSG
3:0
Mar 9, 2016 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
1:2
Feb 16, 2016 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
PSG Compare
Top Goalscorer Kvaratskhelia K.
2 Goals Assists Leader Barcola B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Chelsea Compare
Top Goalscorer Gusto M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Fernandez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
PSG 56 / 100
Chelsea 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
PSG Chelsea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
PSG's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Chelsea let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.
Solid form: PSG remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
PSG VS Chelsea
1.75 Goals Scored 3.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
PSG
(Home) 20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2 PSG
13 Sept
Brest
0 : 1 PSG
09 Sept
PSG
6 : 1 Slovan Bratislava
04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2 Monaco
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2 PSG
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
PSG
6 : 1 Slovan Bratislava
04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2 Monaco
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1 Aston Villa
08 Aug
PSG
1 : 1 Manchester United
30 May
PSG
2 : 1 Arsenal
Page 1 of 4
Chelsea
(Away) 18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2 Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3 Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
24 Aug
Fulham
2 : 3 Chelsea
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3 Chelsea
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
