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PSG vs Lyon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Parc des Princes, Paris
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

PSG host Lyon in the Ligue 1. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. PSG have averaged 2.13 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Lyon's 1.74 scored and 1.39 conceded. Past meetings favor PSG slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 1.56, favoring PSG. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
PSG
15%
Draws
34%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PSG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • PSG have won more games recently than Lyon.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on PSG taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • PSG have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
PSG Clean Sheet 15%
Lyon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG Lyon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 19 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.13 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Ligue 1
PSG vs Lyon
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs PSG
2:3
Feb 23, 2025 Ligue 1
Lyon vs PSG
2:3
Dec 15, 2024 Ligue 1
PSG vs Lyon
3:1
May 25, 2024 Coupe de France
Lyon vs PSG
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG 48 / 100
Lyon 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSG scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: PSG stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Lyon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

PSG VS Lyon
2.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG

(Home)
17 Oct
Strasbourg
1 : 3
PSG
14 Oct
Manchester City
2 : 4
PSG
10 Oct
PSG
3 : 1
Le Mans
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
13 Sept
Brest
0 : 1
PSG
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Lyon

(Away)
15 Oct
Lyon
3 : 2
Crystal Palace
09 Oct
Lens
2 : 1
Lyon
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10:5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12:10 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11:4 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
6 PSG 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
7 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12:11 9
8 Brest 6 2 2 2 12:9 8
9 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
10 Nice 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
11 Lens 6 2 1 3 11:10 7
12 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11:12 7
13 Angers 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
14 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9:8 6
15 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10:15 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8:16 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)