Sport Picks

Stadium Background

PSPS Riau vs PSMS Medan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Indonesia Indonesia

Championship Kaharudin Nasution Sport Center Rumbai Stadium, Pekanbaru
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
08:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

PSPS Riau host PSMS Medan in the Championship. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. PSMS Medan have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while PSPS Riau have conceded 1.33 and scored 1.82. Head-to-head, PSPS Riau have won 1 to PSMS Medan's 0, with 4 draws. They last met on Mar 28, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.44, favoring PSPS Riau. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
PSPS Riau
15%
Draws
45%
PSMS Medan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PSMS Medan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • PSPS Riau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans PSMS Medan's way, sitting at 60%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
PSPS Riau Clean Sheet 16%
PSMS Medan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSPS Riau PSMS Medan
Matches Played 33 35
Wins 15 12
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.82 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Championship
PSMS Medan vs PSPS Riau
1:1
Nov 19, 2025 Championship
PSMS Medan vs PSPS Riau
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 Championship
PSPS Riau vs PSMS Medan
3:3
Jan 4, 2025 Championship
PSPS Riau vs PSMS Medan
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Championship
PSMS Medan vs PSPS Riau
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSPS Riau 19 / 100
PSMS Medan 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSPS Riau PSMS Medan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSMS Medan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSPS Riau scored in 85% of their last 33 games.

PSMS Medan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 35 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: PSPS Riau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PSPS Riau VS PSMS Medan
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSPS Riau

(Home)
04 Oct
Semen Padang
0 : 1
PSPS Riau
26 Sept
Sumsel United
1 : 2
PSPS Riau
19 Sept
PSPS Riau
2 : 1
Persiraja Aceh
11 Sept
PSIS Semarang
2 : 1
PSPS Riau
29 Aug
Persela Lamongan
1 : 0
PSPS Riau
Page 1 of 7

PSMS Medan

(Away)
03 Oct
PSMS Medan
4 : 0
Persikad Depok
27 Sept
Bekasi City
0 : 1
PSMS Medan
20 Sept
PSMS Medan
6 : 0
Persiku Kudus
13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2
PSMS Medan
01 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 1
PSMS Medan
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSMS Medan 4 3 1 0 13:2 10
2 PSIS Semarang 4 3 1 0 7:2 9
3 Persikad Depok 4 3 0 1 6:7 9
4 PSPS Riau 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Semen Padang 4 2 1 1 4:2 6
6 PSGC Ciamis 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
7 Sumsel United 4 1 1 2 5:7 3
8 Bekasi City 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
9 Persiraja Aceh 4 0 0 4 3:7 -1
10 Persiku Kudus 4 0 1 3 2:12 -1
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deltras Sidoarjo 4 4 0 0 12:3 12
2 Persela Lamongan 4 4 0 0 10:0 11
3 RANS Nusantara 5 3 1 1 15:9 10
4 Tornado Pekanbaru 4 2 2 0 5:2 7
5 Persipura Jayapura 5 1 2 2 7:8 4
6 PS Barito Putera 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
7 Persis Solo 4 1 1 2 8:5 4
8 Dejan 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
9 Balikpapan 4 0 0 4 2:7 -4
10 PSBS Biak Numfor 4 0 0 4 1:23 -4
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)