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Puebla de la Calzada vs Castuera - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Rodao J.
86' Event
Rodao J.

AI Match Summary

Puebla de la Calzada in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Puebla de la Calzada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Puebla de la Calzada
20%
Draws
42%
Castuera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castuera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Castuera haven't matched Puebla de la Calzada's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Puebla de la Calzada's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Puebla de la Calzada have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 15%
Castuera Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla de la Calzada Castuera
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.16 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Castuera
2:0
Apr 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:2
Dec 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Castuera
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodao J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Castuera Compare

Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla de la Calzada 35 / 100
Castuera 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla de la Calzada Castuera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castuera let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Recent resilience: Puebla de la Calzada stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Puebla de la Calzada's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla de la Calzada VS Castuera
0.88 Goals Scored 1.33
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla de la Calzada

(Home)
03 Oct
Pueblonuevo
0 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
27 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
1 : 2
Quintana
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
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Castuera

(Away)
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0
UP Plasencia
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0
Castuera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)