Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Fri, Jan 30, 2026
1 - 2
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Barboza W.
33' Event
Guido Paz D.
1' Event
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Toluca U21 in this Liga MX U21 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Puebla U21
15%
Draws
53%
Toluca U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Puebla U21 haven't matched Toluca U21's recent run of results.
  • 32% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Puebla U21 Clean Sheet 68%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla U21 Toluca U21
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 0 2
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.11 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 30, 2026 Liga MX U21
Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Puebla U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Guido Paz D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Barboza W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla U21 41 / 100
Toluca U21 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla U21 Toluca U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Puebla U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla U21 found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Toluca U21 has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Puebla U21 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla U21 VS Toluca U21
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla U21

(Home)
31 Jul
Puebla U21
1 : 0
Guadalajara Chivas U21
21 Jul
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 1
Puebla U21
17 Jul
Juarez U21
0 : 2
Puebla U21
24 Apr
Puebla U21
2 : 3
Queretaro U21
21 Apr
Monterrey U21
4 : 1
Puebla U21
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Toluca U21

(Away)
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas U21
18 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0
Toluca U21
29 Apr
Toluca U21
3 : 0
Juarez U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 17 12 0 5 32:20 32
2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 17 10 0 7 26:19 32
3 Juarez U21 17 11 0 6 23:18 32
4 Monterrey U21 17 11 0 6 27:25 30
5 Pachuca U21 17 9 0 8 30:18 29
6 Toluca U21 17 9 0 8 32:22 29
7 Atlas U21 17 10 0 7 21:23 29
8 UNAM Pumas U21 17 11 0 6 23:26 28
9 Club Leon U21 17 9 0 8 18:16 27
10 Necaxa U21 17 10 0 7 23:25 26
11 Tigres UANL U21 17 8 0 9 20:18 24
12 Atletico San Luis U21 17 8 0 9 25:24 24
13 Club Tijuana U21 17 6 0 11 28:23 22
14 Cruz Azul U21 17 7 0 10 17:21 22
15 Puebla U21 17 5 0 12 17:22 20
16 Queretaro U21 17 8 0 9 20:27 20
17 Santos Laguna U21 17 5 0 12 16:25 20
18 Mazatlan FC U21 17 4 0 13 5:31 13
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)