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Puebla vs Club Leon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Barreiro S.
27'
Ramirez A.
46'
Sub
Barreiro S. In: Bellon P.
Out: Barreiro S.

AI Match Summary

Club Leon in this Liga MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Leon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Puebla
20%
Draws
57%
Club Leon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Leon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Club Leon have won more games recently than Puebla.
  • Model gives Club Leon a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Puebla Clean Sheet 15%
Club Leon Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla Club Leon
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 18
Draws 5 2
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga MX
Puebla vs Club Leon
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga MX
Club Leon vs Puebla
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 Liga MX
Club Leon vs Puebla
1:0
Jul 17, 2024 Liga MX
Puebla vs Club Leon
2:2
Mar 17, 2024 Liga MX
Club Leon vs Puebla
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Club Leon Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla 27 / 100
Club Leon 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla Club Leon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Club Leon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Club Leon has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Puebla stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla VS Club Leon
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla

(Home)
27 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 0
Puebla
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1
Atlante
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Necaxa
0 : 1
Puebla
30 Aug
Club America
2 : 0
Puebla
Page 1 of 6

Club Leon

(Away)
28 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 1
Juarez
21 Sept
Queretaro
1 : 1
Club Leon
15 Sept
Club Leon
2 : 0
Atletico San Luis
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
06 Sept
Club Leon
1 : 0
Club America
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UNAM Pumas 17 10 6 1 34:17 36
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 33:17 36
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 31:18 33
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 25:19 31
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 28:16 30
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 16:18 26
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 28:18 25
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 20:17 25
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 19:17 23
10 Club Leon 17 7 1 9 22:32 22
11 Queretaro 17 4 8 5 17:21 20
12 Juarez 17 5 4 8 26:32 19
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 22:24 18
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 24:27 18
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 19:25 18
16 Mazatlan FC 17 4 3 10 22:37 15
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 13:26 13
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 20:38 12
Promotion - Liga MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)