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Pueblonuevo vs AD Llerenense

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Pueblonuevo Logo

Pueblonuevo

2 - 0
FT
AD Llerenense Logo

AD Llerenense

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Rodriguez G. G.
90' Event
Rodriguez A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Pueblonuevo and AD Llerenense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pueblonuevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Pueblonuevo
20%
Draws
56%
AD Llerenense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Llerenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Llerenense come out ahead of Pueblonuevo on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AD Llerenense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Pueblonuevo Clean Sheet 14%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pueblonuevo AD Llerenense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.04 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs AD Llerenense
2:0
Nov 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Pueblonuevo
2:0
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs AD Llerenense
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Pueblonuevo
2:1
Apr 1, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Pueblonuevo
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pueblonuevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez G. G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

AD Llerenense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pueblonuevo 10 / 100
AD Llerenense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pueblonuevo AD Llerenense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pueblonuevo found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

AD Llerenense has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Pueblonuevo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pueblonuevo VS AD Llerenense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pueblonuevo

(Home)
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
CD Zafra
4 : 1
Pueblonuevo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
30 Aug
Pueblonuevo
0 : 5
CD Badajoz
10 May
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0
CD Azuaga
Page 1 of 6

AD Llerenense

(Away)
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1
AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)