Sport Picks
Match Events
24'
24'
Santos F.
54'
54'
Chavero A.
60'
60'
Canero A.
AI Match Summary
Castuera in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castuera.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castuera
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Pueblonuevo lately — more wins on the board than Castuera.
- Model gives Castuera a 44% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Pueblonuevo Clean Sheet 17%
Castuera Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pueblonuevo | Castuera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 6 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.12 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs Castuera
1:2
Dec 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Pueblonuevo
3:3
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Pueblonuevo
3:2
Sep 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs Castuera
1:0
Mar 10, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Pueblonuevo
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Pueblonuevo Compare
Top Goalscorer Santos F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Castuera Compare
Top Goalscorer Chavero A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Canero A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Pueblonuevo 20 / 100
Castuera 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Pueblonuevo Castuera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castuera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Castuera let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Pueblonuevo scored in 68% of their last 34 games.
Pueblonuevo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Pueblonuevo VS Castuera
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Pueblonuevo
(Home) 20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1 Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
CD Zafra
4 : 1 Pueblonuevo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
30 Aug
Pueblonuevo
0 : 5 CD Badajoz
10 May
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0 CD Azuaga
Page 1 of 7
30 Aug
Pueblonuevo
0 : 5 CD Badajoz
10 May
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0 CD Azuaga
26 Apr
Pueblonuevo
2 : 0 CD Calamonte
12 Apr
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0 Jaraiz
02 Apr
Pueblonuevo
2 : 1 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 4
Castuera
(Away) 20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2 Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
11 May
CD Badajoz
1 : 0 Castuera
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2 Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
11 May
CD Badajoz
1 : 0 Castuera
27 Apr
Pueblonuevo
1 : 2 Castuera
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 73:22 | 75 |
| 2 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 65:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Jaraiz | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 65:40 | 69 |
| 4 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:20 | 63 |
| 6 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58:38 | 58 |
| 7 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 31:31 | 54 |
| 8 | Jerez CF | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 50:48 | 51 |
| 9 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 55:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Moralo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 52:50 | 46 |
| 11 | Montijo | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:34 | 45 |
| 12 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42:71 | 36 |
| 13 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 14 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 35:56 | 32 |
| 15 | Castuera | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 46:64 | 29 |
| 16 | CF Trujillo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 32:63 | 28 |
| 17 | Arroyo | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32:70 | 22 |
| 18 | Olivenza FC | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 26:79 | 17 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
