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Puerto Rico vs Aruba

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Mayagüez Athletics Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Puerto Rico play Aruba in the CONCACAF Nations League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Puerto Rico averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Aruba averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, Puerto Rico won 2, Aruba won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 16, 2024 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Puerto Rico and 1.69 for Aruba. This points to a Puerto Rico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Puerto Rico
18%
Draws
32%
Aruba
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Puerto Rico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Puerto Rico picked up more points recently compared to Aruba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Puerto Rico Clean Sheet 13%
Aruba Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puerto Rico Aruba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 2.07 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.53 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Puerto Rico vs Aruba
5:1
Sep 10, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Puerto Rico
0:1
Mar 18, 2000 World Championship
Puerto Rico vs Aruba
2:2
Mar 10, 2000 World Championship
Aruba vs Puerto Rico
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puerto Rico Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puerto Rico 48 / 100
Aruba 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puerto Rico Aruba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Puerto Rico or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Puerto Rico attacking → ← attacking Aruba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puerto Rico scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Aruba let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Puerto Rico went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aruba lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 34
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1El Salvador650112:615
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines641112:713
3Bonaire61144:84
4Montserrat61053:103
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao641115:313
2Saint Lucia63037:159
3Grenada62137:67
4Saint Martin62048:136
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti660029:518
2Puerto Rico630311:129
3Sint Maarten63037:189
4Aruba60065:170
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dominican Republic660027:418
2Bermuda640215:1312
3Dominica61146:184
4Antigua and Barbuda60152:151