Sport Picks
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK Prediction & H2H Stats
Azerbaijan
Premier League 2025/2026 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku 
Match Events
15'
15'
Montiel J.
(Penalty)
33'
33'
Leandro Andrade
36'
36'
Leandro Andrade
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Qarabag Agdam and Araz PFK finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qarabag Agdam.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
73%
20%
7%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Qarabag Agdam
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Qarabag Agdam come out ahead of Araz PFK on wins alone.
- 73% — that's where the model lands on Qarabag Agdam taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Qarabag Agdam here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 68%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Qarabag Agdam | Araz PFK |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.08 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.77 | 0.67 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
3:2
Mar 8, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
6:0
Dec 14, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
5:1
Sep 21, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Qarabag Agdam
0:5
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Qarabag Agdam Compare
Top Goalscorer Leandro Andrade
2 Goals Assists Leader Qurbanly M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89
Araz PFK Compare
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Qarabag Agdam 95 / 100
Araz PFK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Qarabag Agdam Araz PFK
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Qarabag Agdam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.80 goals per match.
Qarabag Agdam found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (36 games).
Araz PFK let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Solid form: Qarabag Agdam remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Qarabag Agdam VS Araz PFK
1.38 Goals Scored 0.83
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.17
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Qarabag Agdam
(Home) 18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1 Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1 Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4 Twente
Page 1 of 8
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4 Twente
17 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 1 Shamakhi
13 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 0 Dynamo Kyiv
Page 1 of 4
Araz PFK
(Away) 20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1 Araz PFK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2 Turan
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1 Sabah Baku
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0 Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1 Araz PFK
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0 Araz PFK
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1 Araz PFK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1 Araz PFK
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 33 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 75:25 | 78 |
| 2 | Qarabag Agdam | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 71:27 | 69 |
| 3 | Turan | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 44:27 | 59 |
| 4 | Neftci Baku | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 57:32 | 59 |
| 5 | Zira FK | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 43:36 | 53 |
| 6 | Araz PFK | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 44:58 | 46 |
| 7 | SumQayit FK | 33 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 45:49 | 41 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 31:40 | 38 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 23:43 | 34 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 33 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 25:61 | 27 |
| 11 | Gabala | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 32:49 | 27 |
| 12 | Karvan | 33 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23:66 | 15 |
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
