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Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Marques F.
28' Event
Cephas R.
43' Event
Adilkhanov E.

AI Match Summary

Qarabag Agdam in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Qarabag Agdam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Qarabag Agdam
35%
Draws
31%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Qarabag Agdam lately — more wins on the board than Shamakhi.
  • Model gives Qarabag Agdam a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 20%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Shamakhi
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 19 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.91 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
0:0
Mar 4, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Shamakhi
3:1
Feb 10, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
1:2
Feb 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Shamakhi vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Cephas R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kashchuk O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Adilkhanov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 36 / 100
Shamakhi 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Shamakhi has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Qarabag Agdam went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Shamakhi
1 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
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Shamakhi

(Away)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 6 3 1 2 7:8 10
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
8 Gabala 6 1 1 4 2:7 4
9 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
11 SumQayit FK 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)