Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qatar U23 vs Japan U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 2024 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Thu, Apr 25, 2024
2 - 4
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Yamada F.
21'
Al Hadhrami N.
24' Event
Al Rawi A.
Assist: Al Yazidi A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-4, with Japan U23 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Qatar U23
15%
Draws
58%
Japan U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Qatar U23 haven't matched Japan U23's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Japan U23 a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Japan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Japan U23 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Qatar U23 Clean Sheet 11%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qatar U23 Japan U23
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 23
Draws 7 3
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.48 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.65 1.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs Qatar U23
2:0
Apr 25, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
2:4
Sep 20, 2023 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs Qatar U23
3:1
Mar 26, 2022 Friendly International
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
0:2
Jan 15, 2020 AFC Asian Cup U23
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qatar U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Rawi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaber J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.5
Avg xA / game 0.33

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamada F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kimura S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.62
Avg xA / game 0.99

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qatar U23 10 / 100
Japan U23 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qatar U23 Japan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JPN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Qatar U23's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Qatar U23 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Japan U23's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Qatar U23 VS Japan U23
1 Goals Scored 2.57
1 Goals Conceded 0.29
63% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Qatar U23

(Home)
09 Jun
Ireland U21
0 : 0
Qatar U23
03 Jun
Croatia U21
2 : 0
Qatar U23
27 May
Greece U21
1 : 2
Qatar U23
13 May
Qatar U23
1 : 3
Oman U23
11 May
Qatar U23
2 : 1
Oman U23
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Japan U23

(Away)
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
16 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 1
Jordan U23
13 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 0
Qatar U23
10 Jan
United Arab Emirates U23
0 : 3
Japan U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Qatar U23 2
Japan U23 4
Iraq U23 1
Vietnam U23 0
South Korea U23 2
Indonesia U23 3
Uzbekistan U23 2
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Semi-finals
Japan U23 2
Iraq U23 0
Indonesia U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 2
Final
Japan U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 0
Iraq U23 2
Indonesia U23 1