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Queretaro vs Monterrey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio La Corregidora, Querétaro
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Queretaro host Monterrey in the Liga MX. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Monterrey have shipped 1.47 goals a game lately, while Queretaro have conceded 1.25 and scored 1.14. Head-to-head, Queretaro have won 0 to Monterrey's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 5, 2026, ending 4:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.19, favoring Monterrey. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Queretaro
20%
Draws
47%
Monterrey
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Monterrey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Monterrey lately — more wins on the board than Queretaro.
  • Monterrey are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Monterrey have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Queretaro Clean Sheet 20%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Queretaro Monterrey
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Queretaro
4:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Monterrey
0:1
Feb 16, 2025 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Monterrey
2:4
Jul 21, 2024 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Queretaro
2:1
Jan 25, 2024 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Queretaro
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Queretaro 28 / 100
Monterrey 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Queretaro Monterrey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monterrey Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterrey let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Queretaro scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: Queretaro stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Queretaro VS Monterrey
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Queretaro

(Home)
21 Oct
Atletico San Luis
2 : 1
Queretaro
17 Oct
Santos Laguna
5 : 0
Queretaro
10 Oct
Queretaro
2 : 0
Atlante
26 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Queretaro
21 Sept
Queretaro
1 : 1
Club Leon
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Monterrey

(Away)
22 Oct
Puebla
1 : 4
Monterrey
19 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Pachuca
11 Oct
Club America
1 : 1
Monterrey
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Toluca
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America 12 8 3 1 32:16 27
2 Guadalajara Chivas 13 6 5 2 20:12 23
3 Cruz Azul 13 7 2 4 29:22 23
4 Toluca 13 6 4 3 28:18 22
5 Club Leon 13 6 3 4 20:17 21
6 Atlas 13 6 3 4 21:23 21
7 Monterrey 12 6 2 4 23:17 20
8 Queretaro 12 6 2 4 16:15 20
9 Santos Laguna 13 6 1 6 19:16 19
10 Atletico San Luis 14 5 4 5 19:22 19
11 Club Tijuana 12 4 5 3 17:16 17
12 UNAM Pumas 13 4 4 5 19:22 16
13 Puebla 13 4 4 5 13:17 16
14 Tigres UANL 13 3 5 5 14:18 14
15 Atlante 14 3 5 6 14:20 14
16 Pachuca 13 3 4 6 20:18 13
17 Necaxa 14 2 4 8 16:27 10
18 Juarez 14 1 2 11 9:33 5
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)