Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Quindio vs Deportes Tolima

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Centenario, Armenia
Quindio Logo

Quindio

Tue, Jul 28, 2026
3 - 1
11:15 PM
Deportes Tolima Logo

Deportes Tolima

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Ortega M.
45' Event
Lopez E.
65' Event
Lloreda J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Quindio
35%
Draws
46%
Deportes Tolima
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Deportes Tolima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Quindio have managed 1.04 goals a game lately — Deportes Tolima are scoring more at 1.14.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Deportes Tolima, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Quindio Clean Sheet 25%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Quindio Deportes Tolima
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.04 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Copa Colombia
Quindio vs Deportes Tolima
3:1
Jul 21, 2026 Copa Colombia
Deportes Tolima vs Quindio
2:1
Nov 21, 2021 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Quindio
3:1
Apr 27, 2017 Copa Colombia
Quindio vs Deportes Tolima
1:3
Mar 15, 2017 Copa Colombia
Deportes Tolima vs Quindio
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Quindio Compare

Top Goalscorer Lloreda J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Deportes Tolima Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Quindio 37 / 100
Deportes Tolima 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Quindio Deportes Tolima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportes Tolima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Quindio found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Deportes Tolima let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Quindio went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Quindio VS Deportes Tolima
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Quindio

(Home)
21 Sept
Real Cundinamarca
3 : 1
Quindio
13 Sept
Quindio
1 : 2
Patriotas
09 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
0 : 0
Quindio
05 Sept
Quindio
0 : 0
Real Santander
02 Sept
Quindio
1 : 2
Llaneros
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Deportes Tolima

(Away)
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2
Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1
America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2
Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Atl. Nacional 4
Tigres Futbol Club 0
Junior 5
Barranquilla 6
Dep. Pasto 3
Bogota 1
America De Cali 3
Cartagena 2
Once Caldas 6
Envigado 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Quindio 4
Santa Fe 3
Union Magdalena 1
Inter Bogotá 3
Inter Palmira 1