Sport Picks

Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026

Navalcarnero

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Quintanar del Rey play Navalcarnero in the Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Quintanar del Rey averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Navalcarnero averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. In past meetings, Quintanar del Rey won 1, Navalcarnero won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Quintanar del Rey and 1.13 for Navalcarnero. This points to a Quintanar del Rey double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Quintanar del Rey

23%

Draws

37%

Navalcarnero

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Quintanar del Rey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Quintanar del Rey picked up more points recently compared to Navalcarnero.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Quintanar del Rey Clean Sheet 21%

Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Quintanar del Rey	Navalcarnero
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	11	10
Draws	5	9
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	1.2	1.23
Goals Conceded	1.4	1.26
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5

Quintanar del Rey vs Navalcarnero

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Sep 28, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 5

Navalcarnero vs Quintanar del Rey

Possession: 46% - 53% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Quintanar del Rey Compare

Top Goalscorer Lorente J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Navalcarnero Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Quintanar del Rey 40 / 100

Navalcarnero 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Quintanar del Rey Navalcarnero

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Quintanar del Rey or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Quintanar del Rey attacking → ← attacking Navalcarnero

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Quintanar del Rey scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Navalcarnero let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Quintanar del Rey went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Navalcarnero lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 39

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rayo Majadahonda	34	20	10	4	52:23	70
2	San Sebastian Reyes	34	21	7	6	51:27	70
3	Conquense	34	16	12	6	42:30	60
4	Getafe B	34	16	9	9	55:35	57
5	CD Coria	34	16	9	9	50:38	57
6	RSD Alcala	34	14	9	11	42:39	51
7	Tenerife B	34	15	5	14	57:53	50
8	Orihuela	34	12	10	12	45:43	46
9	CF Intercity	34	11	10	13	42:45	43
10	Navalcarnero	34	11	10	13	40:42	43
11	Las Palmas B	34	11	9	14	42:45	42
12	Ilicitano	34	10	11	13	51:56	41
13	Real Madrid C	34	11	7	16	42:45	40
14	Quintanar del Rey	34	11	6	17	36:43	39
15	CF Fuenlabrada	34	9	10	15	35:44	37
16	Colonia Moscardo	34	9	7	18	37:57	34
17	Socuellamos	34	7	10	17	34:55	31
18	Rayo Vallecano B	34	9	3	22	30:63	30