Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Mederos R.
31'
Barros C.
39'
Paiva S.

AI Match Summary

Racing Montevideo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Racing Montevideo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Racing Montevideo
39%
Draws
31%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Racing Montevideo lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 68%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Racing Montevideo CA Cerro
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 6
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 0.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
0:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
1:0
Jan 15, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:2
Feb 8, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomatis B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Racing Montevideo 41 / 100
CA Cerro 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Racing Montevideo CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Racing Montevideo found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (26 games).

Recent resilience: Racing Montevideo stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

CA Cerro let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Racing Montevideo VS CA Cerro
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Racing Montevideo

(Home)
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1
Penarol
06 Jun
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Racing Montevideo
30 May
Racing Montevideo
0 : 0
Defensor Sp.
22 May
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
17 May
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0
Cerro Largo
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CA Cerro

(Away)
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2
CA Cerro
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
24 May
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Central Esp.
16 May
Boston River
4 : 1
CA Cerro
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)