Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Mederos R.
31'
Barros C.
39'
Paiva S.

AI Match Summary

Racing Montevideo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Racing Montevideo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Racing Montevideo
20%
Draws
46%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Racing Montevideo lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on CA Cerro taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 22%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Racing Montevideo CA Cerro
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.1 0.82
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Jul 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
1:0
Jan 15, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomatis B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Racing Montevideo 29 / 100
CA Cerro 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Racing Montevideo CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Cerro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Racing Montevideo found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

CA Cerro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Racing Montevideo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Racing Montevideo VS CA Cerro
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Racing Montevideo

(Home)
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
03 Sept
Club Oriental De Futbol
1 : 2
Racing Montevideo
Page 1 of 6

CA Cerro

(Away)
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)