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Rancho Santana vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bello O.
16' Event
Casado E.
73' Event
Casado E.

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Rancho Santana
17%
Draws
70%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Esteli have won more games recently than Rancho Santana.
  • Model gives Esteli a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Rancho Santana Clean Sheet 15%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rancho Santana Esteli
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 7 21
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:4
Feb 5, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
0:1
Oct 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
4:0
Aug 5, 2025 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:1
Mar 2, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rancho Santana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Casado E.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Bello O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rancho Santana 15 / 100
Esteli 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rancho Santana Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rancho Santana scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Esteli has conceded goals in 59% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Rancho Santana stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rancho Santana VS Esteli
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rancho Santana

(Home)
19 Jul
Managua FC
2 : 1
Rancho Santana
12 Jul
Managua FC
2 : 0
Rancho Santana
05 Jul
Rancho Santana
2 : 3
Managua FC
25 Apr
Real Madriz
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
19 Apr
Rancho Santana
3 : 4
Jalapa
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
18 Jul
Esteli
1 : 1
UNAN-Managua
11 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Xilotepelt
04 Jul
Xilotepelt
0 : 1
Esteli
17 May
Diriangen
1 : 2
Esteli
10 May
Esteli
1 : 1
Diriangen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Diriangen18123340:1939
2Esteli18114341:1937
3Jalapa1896329:1633
4Managua FC1885522:1829
5Matagalpa1857630:2422
6Walter Ferreti1856718:2821
7Sport Sebaco18621023:2420
8UNAN-Managua18441021:3416
9Rancho Santana18441020:4316
10Real Madriz18431114:3315
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)