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Rancho Santana vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bello O.
16' Event
Casado E.
73' Event
Casado E.

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Rancho Santana
35%
Draws
40%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Esteli have won more games recently than Rancho Santana.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Rancho Santana Clean Sheet 16%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rancho Santana Esteli
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 5 18
Draws 6 7
Losses 18 6
Goals Scored 1 1.74
Goals Conceded 2.14 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
1:1
Mar 9, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:4
Feb 5, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
0:1
Oct 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
4:0
Aug 5, 2025 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rancho Santana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Casado E.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Bello O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rancho Santana 31 / 100
Esteli 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rancho Santana Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Rancho Santana scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Esteli let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Rancho Santana has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rancho Santana VS Esteli
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Rancho Santana

(Home)
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
15 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 3
Walter Ferreti
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Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)