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Raplamaa vs Saku Sporting

Estonia Estonia

Estonian Cup 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-5, with Saku Sporting advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Raplamaa
15%
Draws
85%
Saku Sporting
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saku Sporting

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Saku Sporting carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Saku Sporting a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Saku Sporting arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Saku Sporting, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 92%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 92%
Over 3.5 Goals 66%
Over 4.5 Goals 30%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Raplamaa Clean Sheet 10%
Saku Sporting Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Raplamaa Saku Sporting
Matches Played 30 20
Wins 2 8
Draws 0 1
Losses 28 11
Goals Scored 0.8 2.1
Goals Conceded 3.87 3.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 3.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2025 Estonian Cup
Raplamaa vs Saku Sporting
1:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Raplamaa 10 / 100
Saku Sporting 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Raplamaa Saku Sporting

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saku Sporting Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saku Sporting's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 19 matches.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Raplamaa scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Saku Sporting lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Raplamaa VS Saku Sporting
0.63 Goals Scored 2.86
4.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

Raplamaa

(Home)
23 Jul
Nomme Utd
12 : 0
Raplamaa
18 Jun
Raplamaa
1 : 5
Saku Sporting
12 Jun
Legion
3 : 1
Raplamaa
29 Jul
Raplamaa
1 : 5
Laanemaa Haapsalu
13 Nov
Raplamaa
0 : 3
Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 6

Saku Sporting

(Away)
19 Aug
Olympic Tallinn
0 : 7
Saku Sporting
26 Jul
Saku Sporting
2 : 1
Legion
03 Sept
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3 : 0
Saku Sporting
31 Jul
Saku Sporting
3 : 2
Marjamaa Kompanii
18 Jun
Raplamaa
1 : 5
Saku Sporting
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Flora -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kohvile -
TBD -
TBD -
Helm -
Levadia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Flora U18 -
TBD -
TBD -
Flora Tallinn U21 -
Tabasalu Ulasabat -
TBD -
TBD -
Eston Villa -
Harju JK Laagri -
TBD -
TBD -
TransferWise -
Tallinna Wolves 6
Soccernet 4
TBD -
Raasiku Joker -
Nomme Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
Harju JK Laagri III -
Saue JK Laagri -
TBD -
TBD -
Maksatransport -
Tartu JK Welco 2 -
TBD -
TBD -
Narva -
Lootus JK Jarve -
TBD -
JK Arsenal 2
Rae Spordikool 4
FC Tallinn -
TBD -
TBD -
Zealot Sporting -
Johvi Phoenix -
TBD -
TBD -
Kose II -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kalju -
Viimsi JK -
TBD -
TBD -
TalTech JK -
Tamper -
TBD -
TBD -
Rumori Calcio -
Kose -
TBD -
TBD -
Kuressaare -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Paide Linnameeskond -
Flora U19 -
TBD -
TBD -
Vastseliina Tannem -
Tammeka Tartu -
TBD -
TBD -
Tabasalu -
Tartu Kalev 1
Elva 2
TBD -
Legion -
Viimsi Lovid -
TBD -
TBD -
Tallinna Smsraha -
Tallinna Kalev III -
TBD -
TBD -
EstHam United -
Hiiumaa -
TBD -
TBD -
Tallinna Kalev -
Tallinna FC Zapoos -
TBD -
FC Hell Hunt 2
FC Lootos Polva 0
Raplamaa 1
Saku Sporting 5
Marjamaa Kompanii 4
Kubik 0
Parnu JK Vaprus -
TBD -
Olympic Tallinn 0
Tulevik 6
Jarva-Jaani -
TBD -
Keila JK 5
Kallaste United 2
Maardu Aliens -
TBD -
TBD -
JK Poseidon -
Tallinna Kalev U21 6
Vana Hea Puur 0
Laanemaa Haapsalu 2
Kohtla-Jarve Linnameeskond 1
Tartu JK Welco 16
Kuusalu Kalev 0
TBD -
Tartu Helios -
Arukula Vigri -
TBD -
TBD -
Kristiine -
1/32-finals
Flora -
TBD -
Kohvile 0
Helm 4
Levadia -
TBD -
Flora U18 1
Flora Tallinn U21 12
Tabasalu Ulasabat 13
Eston Villa 0
Harju JK Laagri 26
TransferWise 0
Tallinna Wolves 3
Raasiku Joker 4
Nomme Utd 5
Harju JK Laagri III 1
Saue JK Laagri 6
Maksatransport 1
Tartu JK Welco 2 0
Narva 8
Lootus JK Jarve 1
Rae Spordikool 10
FC Tallinn 7
Zealot Sporting 1
Johvi Phoenix -
Kose II -
TBD -
Kalju -
Viimsi JK 7
TalTech JK 1
Tamper 4
Rumori Calcio 2
Kose 0
Kuressaare 7
TBD -
Paide Linnameeskond -
Flora U19 -
Vastseliina Tannem -
Tammeka Tartu 6
Tabasalu 0
Elva 3
Legion 0
Viimsi Lovid 0
Tallinna Smsraha 7
Tallinna Kalev III 9
EstHam United 0
Hiiumaa 0
Tallinna Kalev 3
Tallinna FC Zapoos 7
FC Hell Hunt 0
Saku Sporting 3
Marjamaa Kompanii 2
Parnu JK Vaprus 13
Tulevik 0
Jarva-Jaani 1
Keila JK 4
Maardu Aliens 1
JK Poseidon 4
Tallinna Kalev U21 2
Laanemaa Haapsalu 0
Tartu JK Welco 3
Tartu Helios 0
Arukula Vigri 0
Kristiine 4
1/16-finals
Flora 14
Helm 0
Levadia 4
Flora Tallinn U21 0
Tabasalu Ulasabat 0
Harju JK Laagri 3
Raasiku Joker 1
Nomme Utd 4
Saue JK Laagri 0
Narva 4
Rae Spordikool 0
FC Tallinn 9
Johvi Phoenix 1
Kalju 6
Viimsi JK 4
Tamper 1
Kuressaare 1
Paide Linnameeskond 2
Flora U19 1
Tammeka Tartu 8
Elva 3
Tallinna Smsraha 2
Tallinna Kalev III 1
Tallinna Kalev 8
Tallinna FC Zapoos 3
Saku Sporting 0
Parnu JK Vaprus 9
Keila JK 0
JK Poseidon 1
Tallinna Kalev U21 0
Tartu JK Welco 8
Kristiine 0
1/8-finals
Flora 3
Levadia 1
Harju JK Laagri 0
Nomme Utd 1
Narva 6
FC Tallinn 0
Kalju 0
Viimsi JK 1
Paide Linnameeskond 3
Tammeka Tartu 0
Elva 1
Tallinna Kalev 2
Tallinna FC Zapoos 2
Parnu JK Vaprus 4
JK Poseidon 0
Tartu JK Welco 6
Quarter-finals
Flora 3
Nomme Utd 1
Narva 4
Viimsi JK 3
Paide Linnameeskond 6
Tallinna Kalev 0
Parnu JK Vaprus 2
Tartu JK Welco 1
Semi-finals
Flora 1
Narva 0
Paide Linnameeskond 2
Parnu JK Vaprus 0
Final
Flora 5
Paide Linnameeskond 1