Sport Picks
RB Leipzig vs Magdeburg
Germany
DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig 
Match Events
8'
8'
Mathisen M.
11'
11'
Gnaka S.
(Penalty)
19'
19'
Nusa A.
Assist: Diomande Y.
AI Match Summary
RB Leipzig in this DFB Pokal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Magdeburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Magdeburg at 2.13 per game, RB Leipzig at 1.93.
- 53% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor RB Leipzig, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and RB Leipzig have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
RB Leipzig Clean Sheet 12%
Magdeburg Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 16 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 2, 2025 DFB Pokal
RB Leipzig vs Magdeburg
3:1
Apr 28, 2013 Regionalliga Nordost
RB Leipzig vs Magdeburg
4:0
Nov 11, 2012 Regionalliga Nordost
Magdeburg vs RB Leipzig
1:4
Mar 11, 2012 Regionalliga North
Magdeburg vs RB Leipzig
0:3
Sep 18, 2011 Regionalliga North
RB Leipzig vs Magdeburg
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
RB Leipzig Compare
Top Goalscorer Baumgartner C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Nusa A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Magdeburg Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
RB Leipzig 30 / 100
Magdeburg 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
RB Leipzig Magdeburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Magdeburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
RB Leipzig found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Defensive concern: Magdeburg conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Recent resilience: RB Leipzig stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
RB Leipzig VS Magdeburg
2.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
RB Leipzig
(Home) 20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 RB Leipzig
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0 Hamburger
10 Sept
Como
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
05 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 1 RB Leipzig
29 Aug
RB Leipzig
3 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0 Hamburger
29 Aug
RB Leipzig
3 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
01 Aug
RB Leipzig
4 : 0 Verl
25 Jul
RB Leipzig
1 : 0 Ingolstadt
09 May
RB Leipzig
2 : 1 St. Pauli
Page 1 of 3
Magdeburg
(Away) 18 Sept
Greuther Furth
1 : 1 Magdeburg
12 Sept
Magdeburg
3 : 0 Kaiserslautern
06 Sept
Hertha Berlin
2 : 1 Magdeburg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0 Holstein Kiel
23 Aug
Bahlinger
0 : 4 Magdeburg
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Greuther Furth
1 : 1 Magdeburg
06 Sept
Hertha Berlin
2 : 1 Magdeburg
23 Aug
Bahlinger
0 : 4 Magdeburg
15 Aug
VfL Osnabruck
0 : 3 Magdeburg
18 Jul
Schoningen
0 : 4 Magdeburg
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0
