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Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estádio Defelé, Brasília
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Geovane
89' Event
Roniel
90' Event
Roniel

AI Match Summary

Sobradinho in this Brasiliense matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sobradinho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Real Brasilia
15%
Draws
46%
Sobradinho
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sobradinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Sobradinho have won more games recently than Real Brasilia.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Real Brasilia Clean Sheet 17%
Sobradinho Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Brasilia Sobradinho
Matches Played 37 33
Wins 8 18
Draws 8 9
Losses 21 6
Goals Scored 0.97 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.49 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho
0:3
Feb 9, 2025 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho
1:3
Apr 7, 2021 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho
2:1
Feb 5, 2020 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho
5:0
Mar 31, 2019 Brasiliense
Real Brasilia vs Sobradinho
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Brasilia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Sobradinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Roniel
2 Goals
Assists Leader Geovane
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Brasilia 36 / 100
Sobradinho 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Brasilia Sobradinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sobradinho Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Real Brasilia scored in 57% of their last 37 outings.

Sobradinho's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 33 matches.

Real Brasilia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Real Brasilia VS Sobradinho
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Brasilia

(Home)
28 Feb
ARUC
1 : 4
Real Brasilia
22 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
0 : 2
Real Brasilia
11 Feb
Real Brasilia
0 : 3
Sobradinho
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Ceilandia
2 : 0
Real Brasilia
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Sobradinho

(Away)
21 Mar
Gama
1 : 0
Sobradinho
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)