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Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Jairo
22' Event
Erlon
27'
David Lima

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Real Noroeste and Desportiva Ferroviaria finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Real Noroeste.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Real Noroeste
20%
Draws
38%
Desportiva Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Real Noroeste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Desportiva Ferroviaria carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Real Noroeste taking it.
  • Regular Capixaba form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Real Noroeste Clean Sheet 20%
Desportiva Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Noroeste Desportiva Ferroviaria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.63 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Capixaba
Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
3:2
Apr 19, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
2:1
Feb 23, 2025 Capixaba
Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
1:1
Aug 10, 2024 Copa Espirito Santo
Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
1:2
Jul 10, 2024 Copa Espirito Santo
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Real Noroeste
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Noroeste Compare

Top Goalscorer Erlon
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brito G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Desportiva Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiago Moura
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Noroeste 42 / 100
Desportiva Ferroviaria 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Noroeste Desportiva Ferroviaria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Real Noroeste stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Desportiva Ferroviaria has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Real Noroeste's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Real Noroeste VS Desportiva Ferroviaria
0.63 Goals Scored 0.83
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.83
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria ES962114:420
2Serra942310:614
3Vilavelhense94148:1013
4Rio Branco ES934210:613
5Porto Vitoria93427:513
6Desportiva Ferroviaria932410:1111
7Real Noroeste93249:1311
8Forte92525:411
9Capixaba SC93156:1310
10Rio Branco-VN90548:155