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Real Sociedad vs Lyon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Europa League Anoeta, San Sebastian
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Real Sociedad host Lyon in the Europa League. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Real Sociedad have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.75 conceded recently, against Lyon's 1.79 scored and 1.39 conceded. Head-to-head, Real Sociedad have won 2 to Lyon's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 28, 2013, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.69) point toward Lyon. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Real Sociedad
20%
Draws
47%
Lyon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lyon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Lyon have won more games recently than Real Sociedad.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Europa League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Real Sociedad Clean Sheet 13%
Lyon Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Sociedad Lyon
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2013 Champions League
Real Sociedad vs Lyon
2:0
Aug 20, 2013 Champions League
Lyon vs Real Sociedad
0:2
Jul 20, 2012 Club Friendly
Lyon vs Real Sociedad
1:1
Mar 9, 2004 Champions League
Lyon vs Real Sociedad
1:0
Feb 25, 2004 Champions League
Real Sociedad vs Lyon
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Sociedad 31 / 100
Lyon 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Sociedad Lyon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lyon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Sociedad's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Lyon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Real Sociedad stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Sociedad VS Lyon
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Sociedad

(Home)
15 Oct
Royale Union SG
1 : 1
Real Sociedad
11 Oct
Real Sociedad
3 : 2
Dep. A Coruna
02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Ath Bilbao
20 Sept
Valencia
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
17 Sept
Real Sociedad
1 : 2
Bournemouth
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Lyon

(Away)
15 Oct
Lyon
3 : 2
Crystal Palace
09 Oct
Lens
2 : 1
Lyon
19 Sept
Lyon
4 : 0
Rennes
16 Sept
Anderlecht
1 : 2
Lyon
12 Sept
Paris FC
0 : 0
Lyon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Bayer Leverkusen 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
3 Benfica 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
4 Besiktas 2 2 0 0 7:3 6
5 Bournemouth 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
6 Omonia 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
7 Ferencvaros 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
8 Lyon 2 2 0 0 5:3 6
9 Sunderland 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
10 Olympiacos Piraeus 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
11 Sparta Prague 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
12 Royale Union SG 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
13 Rennes 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
14 Din. Zagreb 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
15 Crystal Palace 2 1 0 1 6:3 3
16 AC Milan 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
17 Jagiellonia 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
18 OFI Crete 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
19 Torreense 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
20 AZ Alkmaar 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
21 Salzburg 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
22 Real Sociedad 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
23 Lillestrom 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
24 Levski Sofia 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
25 H. Beer Sheva 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
26 Sturm Graz 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
27 Nijmegen 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
28 Celta Vigo 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
29 Anderlecht 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
30 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
31 Plzen 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
32 Marseille 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
33 Celtic 2 0 0 2 2:7 0
34 Ararat-Armenia 2 0 0 2 2:7 0
35 Celje 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
36 Lech Poznan 2 0 0 2 0:8 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)