Sport Picks
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati 
Match Events
19'
19'
Sparacello C.
23'
23'
Sparacello C.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Recanatese and Aquila Calcio finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aquila Calcio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aquila Calcio come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Recanatese taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Aquila Calcio here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 20%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recanatese | Aquila Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.46 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
0:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Recanatese
2:1
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
0:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Recanatese
2:1
Mar 29, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recanatese Compare
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Aquila Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Sparacello C.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recanatese 42 / 100
Aquila Calcio 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recanatese Aquila Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recanatese went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Recanatese scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Aquila Calcio has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Recanatese VS Aquila Calcio
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Recanatese
(Home) 16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1 Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
19 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 0 AS Sora
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Aquila Calcio
(Away) 16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Atletico Ascoli
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4 Aquila Calcio
06 Sept
Aquila Calcio
1 : 0 Termoli
01 Aug
Pineto
0 : 1 Aquila Calcio
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1 Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4 Aquila Calcio
01 Aug
Pineto
0 : 1 Aquila Calcio
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1 Aquila Calcio
19 Apr
Ostiamare
2 : 1 Aquila Calcio
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0 Aquila Calcio
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
