Sport Picks
Recanatese vs Maceratese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati 
Match Events
32'
32'
Marras N.
(Penalty)
37'
37'
Ruani E.
44'
44'
Casolla F.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F game between Recanatese and Maceratese finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maceratese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maceratese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Maceratese come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 20%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recanatese | Maceratese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Recanatese
2:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
2:2
Apr 19, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Recanatese
1:0
Dec 7, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Maceratese
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recanatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Casolla F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Maceratese Compare
Top Goalscorer Ruani E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Didio L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recanatese 32 / 100
Maceratese 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recanatese Maceratese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recanatese scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Maceratese conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Recanatese remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Recanatese VS Maceratese
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Recanatese
(Home) 10 Oct
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1 Recanatese
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1 Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
Page 1 of 4
Maceratese
(Away) 04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1 Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2 Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2 Maceratese
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0 Maceratese
19 Apr
Unipomezia
3 : 0 Maceratese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aquila Calcio | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12:2 | 14 |
| 2 | Teramo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17:11 | 13 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Foligno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 13 |
| 5 | Ancona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 6 | Notaresco Calcio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 11 |
| 7 | Fossombrone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:9 | 10 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 9 | Santegidiese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | 8 |
| 10 | Giulianova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10:9 | 7 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10:9 | 7 |
| 12 | Termoli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:5 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 14 | Atletico Ascoli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 16 | Angelana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 18 | Pietralunga | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:9 | 2 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)
