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Recanatese vs Monticelli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 game between Recanatese and Monticelli finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recanatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Recanatese
35%
Draws
28%
Monticelli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Recanatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Monticelli haven't matched Recanatese's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Recanatese a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 68%
Monticelli Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recanatese Monticelli
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 14 13
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.61 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Monticelli
4:0
Sep 24, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Recanatese
1:1
Apr 2, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Recanatese
2:0
Nov 20, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Monticelli
1:1
Jan 24, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Recanatese
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recanatese 95 / 100
Monticelli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recanatese Monticelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Recanatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recanatese scored in 83% of their last 41 games.

Recanatese has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Monticelli has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Recanatese VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Recanatese

(Home)
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1
San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0
Fossombrone
26 Apr
Teramo
2 : 2
Recanatese
Page 1 of 9

Monticelli

(Away)
06 May
ASD Francavilla
2 : 1
Monticelli
29 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 0
Castelfidardo
22 Apr
Agnonese
6 : 0
Monticelli
15 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 1
Nerostellati Pratola
08 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 2
Monticelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vis Pesaro 34 23 4 7 61:29 73
2 Matelica 34 22 5 7 66:28 71
3 Avezzano 34 16 14 4 51:26 62
4 Pineto 34 15 12 7 53:41 57
5 Aquila Calcio 34 15 10 9 57:40 55
6 ASD Francavilla 34 14 11 9 47:38 53
7 San Marino Calcio 34 15 6 13 45:35 51
8 Vastese 34 15 6 13 55:50 51
9 Sangiustese 34 13 9 12 39:41 48
10 Campobasso 34 13 10 11 41:40 45
11 Castelfidardo 34 12 8 14 43:54 44
12 Recanatese 34 12 7 15 47:47 43
13 Agnonese 34 11 8 15 34:35 41
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 7 16 42:51 40
15 Jesina 34 8 10 16 32:46 34
16 Monticelli 34 5 15 14 25:45 30
17 Fabriano Cerreto 34 5 5 24 29:69 20
18 Nerostellati Pratola 34 3 9 22 19:71 18
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 (Play Offs)