Sport Picks
Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Chile
Liga de Ascenso Estadio Municipal Leonel Sánchez Lineros, Recoleta 
Match Events
8'
8'
Barboza A.
46'
46'
Sub
Estigarribia G. In: Flores F.
Out: Estigarribia G.
61'
61'
Flores F.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Ascenso game between Recoleta and San Marcos de Arica finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recoleta.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
15%
40%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Recoleta
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Recoleta haven't matched San Marcos de Arica's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Recoleta's way, sitting at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Recoleta Clean Sheet 68%
San Marcos de Arica Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recoleta | San Marcos de Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica
2:1
May 5, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta
1:0
Sep 8, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Recoleta vs San Marcos de Arica
0:0
May 4, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta
2:1
Aug 18, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recoleta Compare
Top Goalscorer Flores F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Alvarez G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
San Marcos de Arica Compare
Top Goalscorer Barboza A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recoleta 77 / 100
San Marcos de Arica 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recoleta San Marcos de Arica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Recoleta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recoleta scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
San Marcos de Arica let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Recoleta stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recoleta VS San Marcos de Arica
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Recoleta
(Home) 10 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2 Magallanes
03 Oct
Recoleta
2 : 1 S. Wanderers
14 Sept
Deportes Santa Cruz
0 : 0 Recoleta
09 Sept
Recoleta
2 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
06 Sept
Antofagasta
1 : 2 Recoleta
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2 Magallanes
03 Oct
Recoleta
2 : 1 S. Wanderers
09 Sept
Recoleta
2 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
27 Aug
Recoleta
1 : 3 O Higgins
22 Aug
Recoleta
2 : 1 Copiapo
Page 1 of 3
San Marcos de Arica
(Away) 03 Oct
Deportes Santa Cruz
1 : 2 San Marcos de Arica
13 Sept
San Marcos de Arica
3 : 0 Curico Unido
09 Sept
Recoleta
2 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
06 Sept
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 1 Copiapo
01 Sept
Cobreloa
2 : 0 San Marcos de Arica
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Deportes Santa Cruz
1 : 2 San Marcos de Arica
09 Sept
Recoleta
2 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
01 Sept
Cobreloa
2 : 0 San Marcos de Arica
16 Aug
U. Espanola
2 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
08 Aug
S. Wanderers
1 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44:27 | 48 |
| 2 | San Luis | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 41:29 | 47 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 44:39 | 46 |
| 4 | S. Wanderers | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42:30 | 44 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44:26 | 41 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 39:36 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 33:24 | 39 |
| 8 | Copiapo | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 40:39 | 37 |
| 9 | U. Espanola | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32:34 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 42:37 | 35 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 26:34 | 34 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 35:30 | 31 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 24:40 | 27 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 28:42 | 22 |
| 15 | San Felipe | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16:44 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 23:42 | 18 |
Promotion - Liga de Primera 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda Division 2027 (Main)
