Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Red Star vs Rodez

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Bauer, Paris - Saint-Ouen
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Cabral K.
Assist: Durand D.
29' Event
Balde I.
Assist: Arconte T.
61' Event
Escartin J.
Assist: Cabral K.

AI Match Summary

Rodez in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Red Star
33%
Draws
40%
Rodez
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Rodez

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Rodez have won more games recently than Red Star.
  • Rodez are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Rodez arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Rodez, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Red Star Clean Sheet 10%
Rodez Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Red Star Rodez
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 2
Goals Scored 1.88 2
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Red Star vs Rodez
2:3
Jan 30, 2026 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Mar 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Jan 3, 2025 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Red Star Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Escartin J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Rodez Compare

Top Goalscorer Balde I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Magnin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Red Star 26 / 100
Rodez 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Red Star Rodez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodez's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Red Star scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Red Star stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Red Star VS Rodez
1.88 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Red Star

(Home)
28 Jul
UNFP
1 : 4
Red Star
25 Jul
Le Havre
2 : 1
Red Star
21 Jul
Red Star
3 : 2
Orleans
18 Jul
Troyes
1 : 0
Red Star
12 May
Red Star
2 : 3
Rodez
Page 1 of 6

Rodez

(Away)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
22 Jul
Rodez
2 : 1
Nimes
17 Jul
Rodez
4 : 1
Cannes
10 Jul
Rodez
5 : 3
Bastia
15 May
St Etienne
1 : 0
Rodez
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
St Etienne-
TBD-
Red Star2
Rodez3
Semi-finals
Nice-
TBD-
St Etienne1
Rodez0
Final
Nice4
St Etienne1