Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group I Stadio Oreste Granillo

ACR Messina

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Reggina play ACR Messina in the Serie D - Group I. It looks like a close match. Recently, Reggina averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.65 conceded. ACR Messina averaged 0.77 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Reggina won 2, ACR Messina won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Reggina and 0.63 for ACR Messina. This points to a Reggina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Reggina

26%

Draws

28%

ACR Messina

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Reggina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Reggina picked up more points recently compared to ACR Messina.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 52%

Over 2.5 Goals 20%

Over 3.5 Goals 12%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%

Reggina Clean Sheet 29%

ACR Messina Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 47%

Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Reggina	ACR Messina
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	19	9
Draws	5	12
Losses	7	9
Goals Scored	1.29	0.77
Goals Conceded	0.65	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group I

Reggina vs ACR Messina

Possession: 46% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group I

ACR Messina vs Reggina

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 0 - 4

1:0

Dec 29, 2016 Serie C - Group C

ACR Messina vs Reggina

Possession: 52% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Sep 4, 2016 Serie C - Group C

Reggina vs ACR Messina

Possession: 48% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

May 30, 2015 Serie C - Group C

ACR Messina vs Reggina

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Reggina Compare

Top Goalscorer Palumbo A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

ACR Messina Compare

Top Goalscorer Tedesco G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Reggina 47 / 100

ACR Messina 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Reggina ACR Messina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Reggina or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21%

2.63

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +42.8%

7.14

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Reggina attacking → ← attacking ACR Messina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Reggina scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

ACR Messina let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Reggina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

ACR Messina lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 39

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	A.C. Savoia	34	20	9	5	63:29	69
2	Nissa	34	19	10	5	51:27	67
3	Reggina	34	20	6	8	44:23	66
4	Athletic Palermo	34	18	6	10	59:47	60
5	Gelbison	34	17	9	8	44:32	60
6	Sambiase	34	14	11	9	38:30	53
7	Igea Virtus	34	15	13	6	49:36	53
8	Milazzo	34	12	8	14	31:36	44
9	Gela	34	13	5	16	41:44	43
10	Lamezia	34	11	9	14	43:35	42
11	Castrumfavara	34	10	8	16	38:47	38
12	Enna	34	8	12	14	50:53	36
13	Vibonese	34	8	11	15	32:47	35
14	USD Ragusa	34	7	13	14	23:34	34
15	ACR Messina	34	11	13	10	28:33	32
16	AS Acireale	34	7	12	15	37:50	32
17	Sancataldese	34	7	8	19	31:49	29
18	Paterno	34	4	7	23	22:72	19