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Reggina vs Castrovillari Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Izco R.
Own Goal
32' Event
Renelus B.
61' Event
Provazza A.

AI Match Summary

Reggina in this Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Reggina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Reggina
15%
Draws
18%
Castrovillari
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Reggina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Reggina have won more games recently than Castrovillari.
  • Model gives Reggina a 67% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Reggina Clean Sheet 68%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Reggina Castrovillari
Matches Played 46 28
Wins 35 2
Draws 7 12
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 1.87 0.89
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Reggina vs Castrovillari
3:1
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs Reggina
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Reggina Compare

Top Goalscorer Renelus B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Provazza A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Castrovillari Compare

Top Goalscorer Palma M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Reggina 95 / 100
Castrovillari 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Reggina Castrovillari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Reggina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Reggina scored in 89% of their last 46 outings.

Defensive concern: Castrovillari conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Reggina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Reggina VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Reggina

(Home)
27 Sept
Reggina
2 : 0
Igea Virtus
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
Reggina
4 : 0
Calcio Avola
13 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
0 : 1
Reggina
06 Sept
Reggina
5 : 0
Licata
Page 1 of 10

Castrovillari

(Away)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1
Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1
Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1
Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1
San Luca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)