Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Renaissance Mons vs Charleroi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

Belgian Cup
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Belgian Cup. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Charleroi have shipped 1.45 goals a game lately, while Renaissance Mons have conceded 1.11 and scored 1.74. Head-to-head, Renaissance Mons have won 0 to Charleroi's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 27, 2025, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.69, favoring Renaissance Mons. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Renaissance Mons
15%
Draws
46%
Charleroi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Charleroi have won more games recently than Renaissance Mons.
  • Win probability leans Renaissance Mons's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Charleroi arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Charleroi, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Charleroi have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Renaissance Mons Clean Sheet 13%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Renaissance Mons Charleroi
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.74 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2025 Club Friendly
Renaissance Mons vs Charleroi
2:2
Jun 28, 2024 Club Friendly
Renaissance Mons vs Charleroi
0:3
Jun 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Renaissance Mons vs Charleroi
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Renaissance Mons 84 / 100
Charleroi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Renaissance Mons Charleroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Renaissance Mons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Renaissance Mons found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (27 games).

Charleroi has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Renaissance Mons stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Renaissance Mons VS Charleroi
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Renaissance Mons

(Home)
07 Oct
St. Liege U23
3 : 2
Renaissance Mons
03 Oct
Renaissance Mons
4 : 0
Flenu
26 Sept
Londerzeel
0 : 4
Renaissance Mons
20 Sept
Onhaye
2 : 5
Renaissance Mons
12 Sept
Renaissance Mons
2 : 2
Tubize-Braine
Page 1 of 6

Charleroi

(Away)
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Truiden -
TBD -
Diksmuide Oostende 0
Lommel SK 2
Westerlo -
TBD -
SK Roeselare 1
Patro Eisden 2
Crossing Schaerbeek 3
Beerschot VA 5
TBD -
Anderlecht -
Heist 3
Kortrijk 2
TBD -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
TBD -
Knokke 2
RFC Seraing 5
Club Brugge -
TBD -
Houtvenne 0
Sporting Lokeren 5
KV Mechelen -
TBD -
Merelbeke 0
Eupen 1
Union Rochefortoise 3
Lierse SK 2
TBD -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
TBD -
OC Charleroi 1
Habay La Neuve 2
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
Nijlen 3
Boom 1
Oostkamp 0
Virton 3
TBD -
Genk -
Londerzeel 0
Renaissance Mons 4
TBD -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
TBD -
RFC Liege 4
Wellen 1
St. Liege -
TBD -
Hoogstraten 0
Dender 6
Leuven -
TBD -
Diegem 0
Francs Borains 1
Mandel United 1
Hasselt 3
TBD -
Cercle Brugge -
1/16-finals
St. Truiden -
Lommel SK -
Westerlo -
Patro Eisden -
Beerschot VA -
Anderlecht -
Heist -
Antwerp -
Waregem -
RFC Seraing -
Club Brugge -
Sporting Lokeren -
KV Mechelen -
Eupen -
Union Rochefortoise -
Gent -
SK Beveren -
Habay La Neuve -
Royale Union SG -
Nijlen -
Virton -
Genk -
Renaissance Mons -
Charleroi -
RAAL La Louviere -
RFC Liege -
St. Liege -
Dender -
Leuven -
Francs Borains -
Hasselt -
Cercle Brugge -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -