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Stadium Background

RFC Liege vs Charleroi

Belgium Belgium

Belgian Cup 2025/2026 Stade de Rocourt, Liège
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Camara E.
35'
Romsaas J.
46'
Sub
Bustin J. In: Mouchamps D.
Out: Bustin J.

AI Match Summary

Charleroi in this Belgian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
RFC Liege
20%
Draws
56%
Charleroi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Charleroi haven't matched RFC Liege's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Charleroi a 56% chance of winning this.
  • RFC Liege have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Charleroi, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
RFC Liege Clean Sheet 16%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFC Liege Charleroi
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 2 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 Belgian Cup
RFC Liege vs Charleroi
0:1
Jul 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Charleroi vs RFC Liege
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RFC Liege Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalifi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFC Liege 23 / 100
Charleroi 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFC Liege Charleroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charleroi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RFC Liege's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Charleroi has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: RFC Liege remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

RFC Liege VS Charleroi
2.5 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

RFC Liege

(Home)
27 Sept
RFC Liege
4 : 1
Wellen
19 Sept
Eupen
3 : 1
RFC Liege
13 Sept
RFC Liege
4 : 4
Club Brugge U23
06 Sept
Lierse SK
0 : 0
RFC Liege
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2
Dender
Page 1 of 7

Charleroi

(Away)
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
RFC Liege 0
Charleroi 1
KV Mechelen 2
Lierse SK 1
RFC Seraing 1
Leuven 3
Club Brugge 6
Eendracht Aalst 1
Dender 4
OC Charleroi 2
SK Beveren 1
St. Liege 2
Tubize-Braine 0
Royale Union SG 3
Belisia Bilzen 1
Waregem 4
Genk 3
RWDM Brussels 0
Ninove 0
Anderlecht 2
Cercle Brugge 1
Kortrijk 0
Gent 5
Patro Eisden 0
Antwerp 3
Eupen 1
Knokke 0
St. Truiden 1
Beerschot VA 3
Westerlo 2
Heist 1
RAAL La Louviere 2
1/8-finals
Charleroi 2
KV Mechelen 0
Leuven 1
Club Brugge 2
Dender 3
St. Liege 2
Royale Union SG 2
Waregem 1
Genk 1
Anderlecht 3
Cercle Brugge 1
Gent 3
Antwerp 4
St. Truiden 3
Beerschot VA 1
RAAL La Louviere 2
Quarter-finals
Charleroi 2
Club Brugge 0
Dender 0
Royale Union SG 2
Anderlecht 1
Gent 0
Antwerp 2
RAAL La Louviere 1
Semi-finals
Charleroi 1
Royale Union SG 4
Anderlecht 4
Antwerp 1
Final
Royale Union SG 3
Anderlecht 1