Sport Picks

Stadium Background

RFS vs Jelgava

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks, Riga
RFS Logo

RFS

4 - 0
FT
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Lemajic D.
Assist: Savalnieks R.
46'
Sub
Rakic S. In: Kigurs M.
Out: Rakic S.
47' Event
Lemajic D.
Assist: Odisharia L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

RFS in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored RFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
RFS
30%
Draws
33%
Jelgava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Jelgava haven't matched RFS's recent run of results.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on RFS taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors RFS here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
RFS Clean Sheet 68%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFS Jelgava
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 22 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 2.29 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Jul 12, 2026 Latvian Cup
RFS vs Jelgava
2:0
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
4:0
Apr 8, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemajic D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Prenga H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFS 50 / 100
Jelgava 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFS Jelgava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RFS scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Jelgava let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: RFS remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

RFS VS Jelgava
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

RFS

(Home)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
03 Sept
RFS
2 : 3
Riga FC
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 7

Jelgava

(Away)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)