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RFS vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Kigurs M.
Assist: Zelenkovs D.
12'
Sub
Ivulans M. In: Aditajs R.
Out: Ivulans M.
21' Event
Filipovic A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between RFS and Ogre United finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward RFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
RFS
30%
Draws
23%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Ogre United haven't matched RFS's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on RFS taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • RFS have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
RFS Clean Sheet 68%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFS Ogre United
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 24 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 4 20
Goals Scored 2.27 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.82 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs RFS
0:3
Jun 22, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Ogre United
6:0
May 2, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs RFS
3:4
Mar 6, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Ogre United
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemajic D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Diomande I.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFS 95 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFS Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RFS found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (33 games).

Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: RFS stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

RFS VS Ogre United
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

RFS

(Home)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
03 Sept
RFS
2 : 3
Riga FC
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 7

Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)