Sport Picks
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils
Latvia
Latvian Cup Mežaparks Sports Village, Riga 
Match Events
10'
10'
Kivinda D.
23'
23'
Grazis A.
Assist: Owusu R.
25'
25'
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Grazis A.
AI Match Summary
BFC Daugavpils in this Latvian Cup tie, finishing 3-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
11%
9%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Riga Mariners
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Riga Mariners have won more games recently than BFC Daugavpils.
- Win probability leans Riga Mariners's way, sitting at 80%.
- Riga Mariners have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor BFC Daugavpils, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 20%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Riga Mariners | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 31 |
| Wins | 21 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 5 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 3.25 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.25 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Latvian Cup
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Riga Mariners Compare
Top Goalscorer Pavlovskis A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Grazis A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.63
BFC Daugavpils Compare
Top Goalscorer Kivinda D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Ivanovs E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Riga Mariners 76 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Riga Mariners BFC Daugavpils
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick RIG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Riga Mariners's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 33 recent games.
BFC Daugavpils let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Riga Mariners remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Riga Mariners VS BFC Daugavpils
3.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Riga Mariners
(Home) 18 Jul
Leevon PPK
2 : 1 Riga Mariners
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
04 Jul
Alberts JDFS
0 : 4 Riga Mariners
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2 : 0 Marupe
20 Jun
Riga Mariners
1 : 0 Alberts JDFS
Page 1 of 7
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2 : 0 Marupe
20 Jun
Riga Mariners
1 : 0 Alberts JDFS
23 May
Riga Mariners
2 : 2 FK Metta
16 May
Riga Mariners
3 : 1 Valmiera
Page 1 of 3
BFC Daugavpils
(Away) 19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
04 Jul
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1 FK Liepaja
30 Jun
RFS
3 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
25 Jun
BFC Daugavpils
0 : 0 Riga FC
Page 1 of 7
19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
30 Jun
RFS
3 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
12 Jun
Tukums 2000
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
31 May
Jelgava
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
RFK/RFS0
Riga Mariners11
Iecava0
Alberts JDFS5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
BFC Daugavpils-
LSPA1
FK Smiltene5
Valmiera2
Skanste0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ogre United-
FK Auda Riga-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
JFC Viola1
Marupe2
Valka1
Aliance5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Grobina-
Tukums 2000-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Super Nova-
RFS-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
Upesciema Warriors0
JFK Ventspils3
DSVK Traktors3
Leevon PPK5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga FC-
Lielupe0
FK Metta6
Kekava-Auda2
Rezekne1
Saldus NSS0
Salaspils FK4
Speks6
FK Union / JFK Daugava0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners1
Alberts JDFS0
TBD-
BFC Daugavpils-
FK Smiltene1
Valmiera4
TBD-
Ogre United-
FK Auda Riga-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
Marupe4
Aliance2
TBD-
Grobina-
Tukums 2000-
TBD-
TBD-
Super Nova-
RFS-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
JFK Ventspils1
Leevon PPK3
TBD-
Riga FC-
FK Metta5
Kekava-Auda0
Salaspils FK1
Speks3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners3
BFC Daugavpils4
Valmiera2
Ogre United4
FK Auda Riga1
FK Liepaja0
Marupe0
Grobina1
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
RFS2
Jelgava0
Leevon PPK2
Riga FC3
FK Metta3
Speks1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils-
Ogre United-
FK Auda Riga-
Grobina-
Super Nova-
RFS-
Riga FC-
FK Metta-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-