Sport Picks
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils
Latvia
Latvian Cup Mežaparks Sports Village, Riga 
Match Events
10'
10'
Kivinda D.
23'
23'
Grazis A.
Assist: Owusu R.
25'
25'
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Grazis A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-4. This leg finished 3-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Riga Mariners
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Riga Mariners have won more games recently than BFC Daugavpils.
- Win probability leans Riga Mariners's way, sitting at 90%.
- Riga Mariners have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor BFC Daugavpils, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 16%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Riga Mariners | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 5 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.45 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Latvian Cup
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Riga Mariners Compare
Top Goalscorer Pavlovskis A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Grazis A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
BFC Daugavpils Compare
Top Goalscorer Kivinda D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Ivanovs E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Riga Mariners 84 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Riga Mariners BFC Daugavpils
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Riga Mariners Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Riga Mariners's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 7.00 goals.
Defensive concern: BFC Daugavpils conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Solid form: Riga Mariners remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Riga Mariners VS BFC Daugavpils
2.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Riga Mariners
(Home) 12 Sept
FK Smiltene
4 : 1 Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Riga Mariners
5 : 0 Rezekne
29 Aug
Riga Mariners
3 : 1 RFS 2
24 Aug
Riga FC 2
1 : 3 Riga Mariners
09 Aug
Riga Mariners
4 : 2 Tukums 2000 2
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Riga Mariners
5 : 0 Rezekne
29 Aug
Riga Mariners
3 : 1 RFS 2
09 Aug
Riga Mariners
4 : 2 Tukums 2000 2
25 Jul
Riga Mariners
1 : 1 JFK Ventspils
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 3
BFC Daugavpils
(Away) 07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3 FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1 Ogre United
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
26 Jul
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
RFK/RFS 0
Riga Mariners 11
Iecava 0
Alberts JDFS 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
LSPA 1
FK Smiltene 5
Valmiera 2
Skanste 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
JFC Viola 1
Marupe 2
Valka 1
Aliance 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
Upesciema Warriors 0
JFK Ventspils 3
DSVK Traktors 3
Leevon PPK 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
Lielupe 0
FK Metta 6
Kekava-Auda 2
Rezekne 1
Saldus NSS 0
Salaspils FK 4
Speks 6
FK Union / JFK Daugava 0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners 1
Alberts JDFS 0
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
FK Smiltene 1
Valmiera 4
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Marupe 4
Aliance 2
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
JFK Ventspils 1
Leevon PPK 3
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Metta 5
Kekava-Auda 0
Salaspils FK 1
Speks 3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners 3
BFC Daugavpils 4
Valmiera 2
Ogre United 4
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Liepaja 0
Marupe 0
Grobina 1
Tukums 2000 1
Super Nova 2
RFS 2
Jelgava 0
Leevon PPK 2
Riga FC 3
FK Metta 3
Speks 1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils 3
Ogre United 1
FK Auda Riga 3
Grobina 2
Super Nova 0
RFS 1
Riga FC 4
FK Metta 1
Semi-finals
BFC Daugavpils 2
FK Auda Riga 3
RFS 2
Riga FC 3
Final
FK Auda Riga -
Riga FC -
