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Riga Mariners vs Marupe

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Owusu R.
84' Event
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Grazis A.

AI Match Summary

Riga Mariners in this Nakotnes liga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga Mariners.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Riga Mariners
6%
Draws
4%
Marupe
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Riga Mariners

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Riga Mariners lately — more wins on the board than Marupe.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Riga Mariners taking it.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Riga Mariners here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 68%
Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riga Mariners Marupe
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 19 12
Draws 8 2
Losses 4 15
Goals Scored 3.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 3.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Riga Mariners vs Marupe
2:0
Aug 9, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Riga Mariners vs Marupe
3:1
Apr 12, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Marupe vs Riga Mariners
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga Mariners Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlovskis A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.63

Marupe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga Mariners 95 / 100
Marupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riga Mariners Marupe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RIG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga Mariners found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).

Marupe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Riga Mariners stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Riga Mariners VS Marupe
3.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FK Metta12101142:1131
2Valmiera1292132:1229
3Riga Mariners1284025:1028
4Leevon PPK1273220:1524
5Alberts JDFS1262425:2020
6Marupe1261522:1519
7Super Nova 21254319:1719
8Riga FC 21251619:2216
9Skanste1241720:2413
10JFK Ventspils1224615:2010
11RFS 21223715:269
12Tukums 2000 21222816:318
13Rezekne1212910:365
14FK Smiltene1204812:334