Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Riga Mariners vs Marupe

Latvia Latvia

1. Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Owusu R.
84' Event
Pavlovskis A.
Assist: Grazis A.

AI Match Summary

Riga Mariners in this 1. Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga Mariners.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Riga Mariners
15%
Draws
16%
Marupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Riga Mariners

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Riga Mariners lately — more wins on the board than Marupe.
  • 69% — that's where the model lands on Riga Mariners taking it.
  • Regular 1. Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Riga Mariners here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 68%
Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riga Mariners Marupe
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 11
Draws 7 2
Losses 4 17
Goals Scored 2.55 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 1. Liga
Riga Mariners vs Marupe
2:0
Aug 9, 2025 1. Liga
Riga Mariners vs Marupe
3:1
Apr 12, 2025 1. Liga
Marupe vs Riga Mariners
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga Mariners Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlovskis A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Marupe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga Mariners 95 / 100
Marupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riga Mariners Marupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga Mariners Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga Mariners found the back of the net in 97% of recent matches (29 games).

Marupe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Riga Mariners went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Riga Mariners VS Marupe
2.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Riga Mariners

(Home)
29 Aug
Riga Mariners
3 : 1
RFS 2
24 Aug
Riga FC 2
1 : 3
Riga Mariners
09 Aug
Riga Mariners
4 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
31 Jul
Super Nova 2
0 : 3
Riga Mariners
25 Jul
Riga Mariners
1 : 1
JFK Ventspils
Page 1 of 6

Marupe

(Away)
29 Aug
Marupe
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
15 Aug
Marupe
2 : 1
Super Nova 2
08 Aug
Marupe
0 : 1
Leevon PPK
01 Aug
Skanste
4 : 2
Marupe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 18 15 2 1 54:16 47
2 FK Metta 18 15 2 1 77:14 47
3 Leevon PPK 18 13 3 2 33:21 42
4 Riga Mariners 18 12 5 1 40:17 41
5 Alberts JDFS 18 10 4 4 37:24 34
6 Marupe 19 8 1 10 29:32 25
7 Super Nova 2 19 6 6 7 26:28 24
8 Skanste 18 7 2 9 37:35 23
9 Riga FC 2 18 6 3 9 25:34 21
10 Tukums 2000 2 17 3 3 11 23:51 12
11 JFK Ventspils 17 2 6 9 19:29 12
12 RFS 2 18 3 3 12 24:51 12
13 FK Smiltene 18 2 4 12 21:53 10
14 Rezekne 18 1 2 15 14:54 5
Promotion - Virsliga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Virsliga (Relegation)