Sport Picks
Risca United vs Aberbargoed Buds Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
FA Cup 2022/2023 
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-2, with Risca United advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aberbargoed Buds
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Risca United carry the better recent record into this one.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Risca United have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Risca United, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Risca United Clean Sheet 12%
Aberbargoed Buds Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Risca United | Aberbargoed Buds |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 15 |
| Wins | 8 | 4 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.87 | 2.27 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2022 FAW Welsh Cup
Risca United vs Aberbargoed Buds
4:2
May 16, 2020 Division 1
Aberbargoed Buds vs Risca United
0:0
May 9, 2020 Division 1
Risca United vs Aberbargoed Buds
0:0
Apr 20, 2016 Division 1
Risca United vs Aberbargoed Buds
5:0
Nov 27, 2015 Division 1
Aberbargoed Buds vs Risca United
4:3
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Risca United 30 / 100
Aberbargoed Buds 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Risca United Aberbargoed Buds
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aberbargoed Buds Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Aberbargoed Buds conceded in 93% of 15 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
Risca United's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Recent resilience: Risca United stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Risca United VS Aberbargoed Buds
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Risca United
(Home) 21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
Page 1 of 6
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
15 Apr
Risca United
1 : 1 Cwmbran Celtic
09 Apr
Risca United
1 : 1 Carmarthen Town
25 Mar
Risca United
0 : 1 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 3
Aberbargoed Buds
(Away) 16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
07 Mar
Goytre AFC
2 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
08 Feb
Garden Village
0 : 1 Aberbargoed Buds
01 Feb
Aberbargoed Buds
1 : 1 Pontardawe
25 Jan
Trefelin
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
Page 1 of 3
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
07 Mar
Goytre AFC
2 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
08 Feb
Garden Village
0 : 1 Aberbargoed Buds
25 Jan
Trefelin
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
28 Dec
Monmouth
2 : 3 Aberbargoed Buds
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
CKSV 1
Aber Valley 5
TBD -
Barry Town -
Llandudno Amateurs 1
Llanrug 7
Llanidloes Town 0
Gresford 1
Felinheli 2
Glannau 1
Conwy Borough 3
Kinmel Bay 2
Risca United 4
Aberbargoed Buds 2
TBD -
Penybont -
Trearddur Bay 1
Penycae FC 5
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Abergavenny Town 2
Treharris Athletic 1
TBD -
Goytre Utd -
Afan Lido 0
Hakin United 1
TBD -
Taffs Well -
Llanfair United 1
Llanuwchllyn 2
TBD -
Holywell Town FC -
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Ammanford Town 0
TBD -
Llantwit Major -
Cefn Cribwr 1
Newport City 2
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Penydarren 4
Ynyshir Albions 0
TBD -
Pure Swansea -
Trethomas Bluebirds 6
Ton Pentre 0
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Mochdre Sports 0
Chirk AAA FC 3
TBD -
TNS -
Llay Welfare 3
Flint Mountain 6
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Pencoed 6
Brecon Corinthians 2
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Treowen 0
Cardiff Corries 6
TBD -
Newtown -
Abermule 2
Hawarden Rangers 3
TBD -
Bala -
Penrhyncoch 1
Caersws FC 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Penparcau FC 1
Rhyl 3
TBD -
Ruthin Town -
Chepstow Town 1
Rockspur 0
TBD -
Pontypridd United -
Porthmadog 3
Mold Alexandra 4
TBD -
Holyhead -
Croesyceiliog FC 2
Ynysygerwn 1
TBD -
Briton Ferry -
Llangefni 1
Llandudno Albion 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Machynlleth 0
Prestatyn 3
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
Llansannan 1
Glantraeth FC 2
TBD -
Cefn Druids -
Canton 5
West End 1
Llanelli 4
Goytre AFC 0
Denbigh 6
Llanrwst United 1
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Bow Street 6
Bangor 1876 5
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Baglan Dragons 1
Pontardawe 2
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Pill 4
Caldicot 0
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Talysarn Celts 0
Queens Park 1
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Aberfan 2
Porthcawl Town 0
Trefelin 5
Llandrindod 0
1/32-finals
Aber Valley 1
Barry Town 3
Llanrug 0
Gresford 3
Felinheli 1
Conwy Borough 4
Risca United 1
Penybont 5
Penycae FC 1
Guilsfield 4
Abergavenny Town 1
Goytre Utd 2
Hakin United 4
Taffs Well 1
Llanuwchllyn 0
Holywell Town FC 5
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Llantwit Major 2
Newport City 0
Carmarthen Town 2
Penydarren 2
Pure Swansea 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 2
Haverfordwest 1
Chirk AAA FC 1
TNS 2
Flint Mountain 0
Caernarfon 4
Pencoed 0
Aberystwyth 1
Cardiff Corries 1
Newtown 8
Hawarden Rangers 1
Bala 6
Caersws FC 0
Flint Town 1
Rhyl 0
Ruthin Town 2
Chepstow Town 1
Pontypridd United 2
Mold Alexandra 3
Holyhead 1
Croesyceiliog FC 0
Briton Ferry 5
Llandudno Albion 0
Buckley 3
Prestatyn 2
Llandudno FC 0
Glantraeth FC 0
Cefn Druids 5
Canton 1
Llanelli 2
Denbigh 1
Connahs Q. 5
Bow Street 1
Colwyn Bay 4
Pontardawe 1
Cambrian United 0
Pill 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 1
Queens Park 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Aberfan 1
Trefelin 5
1/16-finals
Barry Town 0
Gresford 2
Conwy Borough 0
Penybont 3
Guilsfield 6
Goytre Utd 3
Hakin United 1
Holywell Town FC 5
Cwmbran Celtic 4
Carmarthen Town 3
Penydarren 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 0
TNS 2
Caernarfon 1
Aberystwyth 1
Newtown 3
Bala 2
Flint Town 0
Ruthin Town 3
Pontypridd United 4
Mold Alexandra 0
Briton Ferry 4
Buckley 2
Prestatyn 0
Cefn Druids 3
Llanelli 4
Connahs Q. 4
Colwyn Bay 0
Pontardawe 3
Pill 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Trefelin 1
1/8-finals
Gresford 0
Penybont 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 2
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Penydarren 2
TNS 7
Newtown 0
Bala 2
Pontypridd United 1
Briton Ferry 3
Buckley 2
Llanelli 0
Connahs Q. 2
Pontardawe 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Quarter-finals
Penybont 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cwmbran Celtic 1
TNS 3
Bala 2
Briton Ferry 0
Connahs Q. 5
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Semi-finals
Penybont 0
TNS 2
Bala 3
Connahs Q. 2
Final
TNS 6
Bala 0
