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Roccella vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Mautone F.

AI Match Summary

Gelbison in this Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Roccella
20%
Draws
51%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gelbison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Gelbison have won more games recently than Roccella.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Gelbison taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Gelbison have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Roccella Clean Sheet 17%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Roccella Gelbison
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 5 26
Draws 5 5
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 0.77 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
4:0
Mar 24, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Gelbison
0:1
Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
2:1
Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Gelbison
0:1
Jan 31, 2016 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Roccella
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Roccella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Mautone F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Roccella 12 / 100
Gelbison 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Roccella Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gelbison Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Roccella's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gelbison conceded in 57% of 40 recent games.

Recent resilience: Roccella stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Gelbison
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Roccella

(Home)
03 Jul
FC Messina
7 : 1
Roccella
16 Jun
Roccella
1 : 1
Castrovillari
13 Jun
Gelbison
4 : 0
Roccella
30 May
Roccella
2 : 1
Biancavilla
23 May
Roccella
0 : 1
AS Acireale
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Gelbison

(Away)
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ACR Messina 34 21 11 2 66:25 74
2 FC Messina 34 21 9 4 59:25 72
3 Gelbison 34 19 9 6 54:32 66
4 San Luca 34 17 7 10 46:38 58
5 AS Acireale 34 17 6 11 51:32 57
6 Dattilo 34 16 4 14 51:47 52
7 Rotonda 34 13 10 11 31:33 49
8 Santa Maria Cilento 34 10 15 9 43:29 45
9 Biancavilla 34 14 4 16 43:47 45
10 Licata 34 11 10 13 36:39 43
11 Castrovillari 34 10 11 13 39:37 41
12 Paterno 34 10 9 15 28:35 39
13 Cittanovese 34 10 9 15 42:51 39
14 S. Agata 34 8 12 14 32:48 36
15 Troina 34 9 9 16 27:47 36
16 Rende 34 9 7 18 38:58 34
17 Marina di Ragusa 34 8 9 17 38:58 33
18 Roccella 34 5 5 24 25:68 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 (Play Offs)