Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Rochdale vs Scunthorpe

England England

National League 2025/2026 Spotland Stadium, Rochdale
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Evans W.
Own Goal
19'
Horton B.
34'
Adebayo-Rowling T.

AI Match Summary

Rochdale in this National League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Rochdale
15%
Draws
39%
Scunthorpe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rochdale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Rochdale have won more games recently than Scunthorpe.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Rochdale have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Rochdale, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 16%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochdale Scunthorpe
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.71 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs Scunthorpe
2:1
Mar 25, 2026 National League
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
2:2
Feb 17, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs Scunthorpe
1:1
Jul 19, 2022 Club Friendly
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
1:4
Feb 19, 2022 League Two
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rochdale Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodney D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Scunthorpe Compare

Top Goalscorer Howe D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochdale 31 / 100
Scunthorpe 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochdale Scunthorpe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Rochdale scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Scunthorpe conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

Rochdale went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rochdale VS Scunthorpe
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rochdale

(Home)
22 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 4
Liverpool U21
19 Sept
Rochdale
2 : 0
Oldham
12 Sept
Walsall
0 : 0
Rochdale
05 Sept
Rochdale
1 : 4
Gillingham
01 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 0
Shrewsbury
Page 1 of 6

Scunthorpe

(Away)
19 Sept
Hornchurch
1 : 0
Scunthorpe
16 Sept
Scunthorpe
1 : 2
Boreham Wood
12 Sept
Sutton
0 : 2
Scunthorpe
08 Sept
Scunthorpe
2 : 1
Nottingham U21
05 Sept
Scunthorpe
0 : 2
Harrogate
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochdale -
TBD -
Scunthorpe 1
Southend 0
Carlisle -
TBD -
Boreham Wood 1
Forest Green 0
Semi-finals
Rochdale 2
Scunthorpe 1
Carlisle 1
Boreham Wood 2
Final
Rochdale 3
Boreham Wood 2