Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Rochdale vs Scunthorpe

England England

National League 2025/2026 Spotland Stadium, Rochdale
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Evans W.
Own Goal
19'
Horton B.
34'
Adebayo-Rowling T.

AI Match Summary

Rochdale in this National League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Rochdale
39%
Draws
30%
Scunthorpe
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Rochdale have won more games recently than Scunthorpe.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Rochdale have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Rochdale, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 12%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochdale Scunthorpe
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs Scunthorpe
2:1
Mar 25, 2026 National League
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
2:2
Feb 17, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs Scunthorpe
1:1
Jul 19, 2022 Club Friendly
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
1:4
Feb 19, 2022 League Two
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rochdale Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodney D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Scunthorpe Compare

Top Goalscorer Howe D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochdale 30 / 100
Scunthorpe 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochdale Scunthorpe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rochdale scored in 91% of their last 32 games.

Scunthorpe let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Rochdale went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rochdale VS Scunthorpe
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Rochdale

(Home)
01 Aug
Tranmere
2 : 3
Rochdale
28 Jul
Rochdale
2 : 3
Halifax
25 Jul
Rochdale
2 : 2
Farnham
19 Jul
Rochdale
3 : 3
Al Rayyan
14 Jul
United of Manchester
2 : 0
Rochdale
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Scunthorpe

(Away)
31 Jul
Scunthorpe
1 : 1
Chesterfield
28 Jul
North Ferriby FC
3 : 6
Scunthorpe
21 Jul
Buxton
2 : 0
Scunthorpe
18 Jul
Spalding United
2 : 2
Scunthorpe
15 Jul
Skegness Town
0 : 1
Scunthorpe
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochdale -
TBD -
Scunthorpe 1
Southend 0
Carlisle -
TBD -
Boreham Wood 1
Forest Green 0
Semi-finals
Rochdale 2
Scunthorpe 1
Carlisle 1
Boreham Wood 2
Final
Rochdale 3
Boreham Wood 2