Sport Picks
Rodina Moscow vs Orenburg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Russia
Russian Cup Arena Khimki, Khimki 
Match Events
2'
2'
Alexandre Jesus
Assist: Kasadzhikov A.
6'
6'
Egorychev A.
31'
31'
Vasiljev D.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-4. The second leg ended 1-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Orenburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Rodina Moscow come out ahead of Orenburg on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Rodina Moscow have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Orenburg, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Rodina Moscow Clean Sheet 14%
Orenburg Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rodina Moscow | Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 18, 2026 Russian Cup
Rodina Moscow vs Orenburg
1:4
Feb 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Orenburg vs Rodina Moscow
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rodina Moscow Compare
Top Goalscorer Timoshenko I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Orenburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Puebla D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Alexandre Jesus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rodina Moscow 35 / 100
Orenburg 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rodina Moscow Orenburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Orenburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Rodina Moscow's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Orenburg has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.50 goals.
Rodina Moscow has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Rodina Moscow VS Orenburg
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Rodina Moscow
(Home) 04 Oct
Dynamo Moscow
3 : 2 Rodina Moscow
27 Sept
Partizan
2 : 3 Rodina Moscow
16 Sept
Rodina Moscow
1 : 1 Rubin Kazan
11 Sept
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 1 Rodina Moscow
06 Sept
Dynamo Makhachkala
2 : 0 Rodina Moscow
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16 Sept
Rodina Moscow
1 : 1 Rubin Kazan
30 Aug
Rodina Moscow
0 : 3 Baltika
18 Aug
Rodina Moscow
1 : 4 Orenburg
15 Aug
Rodina Moscow
3 : 3 Akron Togliatti
04 Aug
Rodina Moscow
5 : 0 Rubin Kazan
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Orenburg
(Away) 10 Oct
Orenburg
4 : 0 Dynamo Makhachkala
03 Oct
Orenburg
3 : 2 Tekstilshtik
03 Oct
Lokomotiv Moscow
2 : 0 Orenburg
17 Sept
Orenburg
0 : 0 Krasnodar
12 Sept
Dynamo Moscow
1 : 0 Orenburg
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03 Oct
Lokomotiv Moscow
2 : 0 Orenburg
12 Sept
Dynamo Moscow
1 : 0 Orenburg
30 Aug
Spartak Moscow
1 : 1 Orenburg
22 Aug
Fakel Voronezh
0 : 0 Orenburg
18 Aug
Rodina Moscow
1 : 4 Orenburg
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 2 | Rubin Kazan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 3 | Orenburg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | 4 |
| 4 | Rodina Moscow | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 3 |
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krasnodar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Dynamo Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Fakel Voronezh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:4 | 1 |
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 8 |
| 2 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Baltika | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 4 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | 1 |
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Rostov | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 9 |
| 2 | Akron Togliatti | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | 5 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 2 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:2 | 2 |
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)
