Sport Picks
Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Bulgaria
Bulgarian Cup 
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-3. This leg finished 1-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nesebar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nesebar have won more games recently than Rodopa Smolyan.
- 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Nesebar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nesebar, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Nesebar have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Rodopa Smolyan Clean Sheet 10%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rodopa Smolyan | Nesebar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 18 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 14 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 2.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar
1:3
Apr 4, 2026 Third League - South-East
Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar
1:3
Sep 28, 2025 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Rodopa Smolyan
8:0
Jun 1, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Rodopa Smolyan
6:1
Nov 25, 2023 Third League - South-East
Rodopa Smolyan vs Nesebar
2:4
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rodopa Smolyan 30 / 100
Nesebar 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rodopa Smolyan Nesebar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nesebar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 5.80 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Rodopa Smolyan scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Nesebar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.
Rodopa Smolyan has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Rodopa Smolyan VS Nesebar
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Rodopa Smolyan
(Home) 04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Nesebar
26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rodopa Smolyan
19 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
5 : 3 Maritsa Plovdiv
12 Sept
Rozova Dolina
1 : 1 Rodopa Smolyan
05 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
0 : 0 OFC Haskovo
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Nesebar
19 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
5 : 3 Maritsa Plovdiv
05 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
0 : 0 OFC Haskovo
22 Aug
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Zagorets
30 May
Rodopa Smolyan
4 : 2 Sekirovo Rakovski
Page 1 of 3
Nesebar
(Away) 04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Nesebar
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0 Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3 Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1 Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1 Rilski Sportist
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Nesebar
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0 Nesebar
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1 Nesebar
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0 Nesebar
16 Aug
Svoge
0 : 1 Nesebar
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Chernomorets Balchik 2
Etar 3
TBD -
Spartak Varna -
Natsional Sofia 1
Gorna 3
TBD -
Septemvri Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv 1
Botev Ihtiman 0
TBD -
Arda -
Balkan Botevgrad 0
Fratria 3
TBD -
Botev Vratsa -
Neftochimic Burgas 2
Svoge 1
TBD -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
Botev Novi Pazar 1
Vihren 4
TBD -
Lok. Sofia -
Benkovski 0
Akademik Svishtov 3
TBD -
Slavia Sofia -
Oborishte Panagyurishte 1
Yantra Gabrovo 3
TBD -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Zagorets 0
Rilski Sportist 4
TBD -
Dunav Ruse -
Minyor Pernik 1
Beroe 2
TBD -
Ludogorets -
Volov Shumen 0
Chernomorets 1919 2
TBD -
Botev Plovdiv -
Krumovgrad 1
Spartak Pleven 2
TBD -
Levski Sofia -
Chavdar Troyan 0
Marek 4
TBD -
Cherno More -
Rodopa Smolyan 1
Nesebar 3
TBD -
CSKA Sofia -
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3
Yambol 1915 0
Hebar 5
Belasitsa Petrich 1
Dobrudzha 2
Bdin Vidin 0
Montana 2
1/16-finals
Etar -
Spartak Varna -
Gorna -
Septemvri Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv -
Arda -
Fratria -
Botev Vratsa -
Neftochimic Burgas -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
Vihren -
Lok. Sofia -
Akademik Svishtov -
Slavia Sofia -
Yantra Gabrovo -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Rilski Sportist -
Dunav Ruse -
Beroe -
Ludogorets -
Chernomorets 1919 -
Botev Plovdiv -
Spartak Pleven -
Levski Sofia -
Marek -
Cherno More -
Nesebar -
CSKA Sofia -
Pirin Blagoevgrad -
Hebar -
Dobrudzha -
Montana -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
