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RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero

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Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026
RSD Alcala Logo

RSD Alcala

1 - 0
FT
Navalcarnero Logo

Navalcarnero

Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Martinez M. G.
83' Event
Alburquerque A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

RSD Alcala in this Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored RSD Alcala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
RSD Alcala
35%
Draws
38%
Navalcarnero
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Navalcarnero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • RSD Alcala have won more games recently than Navalcarnero.
  • RSD Alcala are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
RSD Alcala Clean Sheet 20%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RSD Alcala Navalcarnero
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.33 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs RSD Alcala
3:1
Jul 18, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Navalcarnero vs RSD Alcala
1:1
Jan 12, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Navalcarnero vs RSD Alcala
0:1
Aug 25, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
RSD Alcala vs Navalcarnero
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RSD Alcala Compare

Top Goalscorer Alburquerque A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Navalcarnero Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RSD Alcala 42 / 100
Navalcarnero 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RSD Alcala Navalcarnero

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RSD Alcala found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Navalcarnero's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: RSD Alcala stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

RSD Alcala VS Navalcarnero
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

RSD Alcala

(Home)
19 Aug
RSD Alcala
1 : 1
Gimnastica Segoviana
14 Aug
RSD Alcala
2 : 0
Rayo Majadahonda
08 Aug
RSD Alcala
1 : 0
Getafe B
03 May
RSD Alcala
1 : 2
CD Coria
26 Apr
Quintanar del Rey
0 : 0
RSD Alcala
Page 1 of 6

Navalcarnero

(Away)
08 Aug
Alcorcon
1 : 1
Navalcarnero
05 Aug
Toledo
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
03 May
Navalcarnero
3 : 1
CF Fuenlabrada
26 Apr
Colonia Moscardo
0 : 0
Navalcarnero
19 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 0
Conquense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rayo Majadahonda 34 20 10 4 52:23 70
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 21 7 6 51:27 70
3 Conquense 34 16 12 6 42:30 60
4 Getafe B 34 16 9 9 55:35 57
5 CD Coria 34 16 9 9 50:38 57
6 RSD Alcala 34 14 9 11 42:39 51
7 Tenerife B 34 15 5 14 57:53 50
8 Orihuela 34 12 10 12 45:43 46
9 CF Intercity 34 11 10 13 42:45 43
10 Navalcarnero 34 11 10 13 40:42 43
11 Las Palmas B 34 11 9 14 42:45 42
12 Ilicitano 34 10 11 13 51:56 41
13 Real Madrid C 34 11 7 16 42:45 40
14 Quintanar del Rey 34 11 6 17 36:43 39
15 CF Fuenlabrada 34 9 10 15 35:44 37
16 Colonia Moscardo 34 9 7 18 37:57 34
17 Socuellamos 34 7 10 17 34:55 31
18 Rayo Vallecano B 34 9 3 22 30:63 30
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)