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Rukinzo vs Ngozi City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Burundi Burundi

Primus League
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
01:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rukinzo host Ngozi City in the Primus League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Rukinzo at 1.77 goals for, 0.81 against; Ngozi City at 1.3 for, 1.43 against. Past meetings favor Rukinzo slightly — 4-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 5, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 0.76, favoring Rukinzo. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Rukinzo
20%
Draws
51%
Ngozi City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ngozi City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Rukinzo lately — more wins on the board than Ngozi City.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Rukinzo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Rukinzo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Rukinzo Clean Sheet 20%
Ngozi City Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rukinzo Ngozi City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 11 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.77 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Coupe du President
Rukinzo vs Ngozi City
0:0
May 3, 2026 Coupe du President
Ngozi City vs Rukinzo
0:1
Apr 12, 2026 Primus League
Rukinzo vs Ngozi City
4:2
Aug 31, 2025 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Rukinzo
0:3
Apr 27, 2025 Primus League
Rukinzo vs Ngozi City
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rukinzo 67 / 100
Ngozi City 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rukinzo Ngozi City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rukinzo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Rukinzo scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Ngozi City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Rukinzo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rukinzo VS Ngozi City
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rukinzo

(Home)
03 Oct
Rukinzo
7 : 0
Young Star
13 Sept
Rukinzo
1 : 2
Durban City
06 Sept
Durban City
1 : 0
Rukinzo
30 Aug
Rukinzo
0 : 0
Olympic Star
19 Aug
Musongati
0 : 0
Rukinzo
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Ngozi City

(Away)
03 Oct
Aigle Noir
2 : 1
Ngozi City
27 Sept
Ngozi City
1 : 0
Kayanza United
30 Aug
Ngozi City
2 : 1
Inter Star
23 Aug
Vital'O
2 : 1
Ngozi City
16 Aug
Ngozi City
2 : 0
Young Star
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royal Vision 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Muzinga 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
3 Aigle Noir 5 3 1 1 10:7 10
4 Le Messager Ngozi 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
5 Ngozi City 5 3 0 2 7:5 9
6 Rukinzo 4 2 2 0 9:1 8
7 Vital'O 5 2 2 1 7:10 8
8 Olympic Star 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
9 Flambeau du Centre 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
10 Kayanza United 5 0 4 1 2:3 4
11 Bumamuru 5 1 1 3 4:6 4
12 Never Give Up Academy 4 1 1 2 2:4 4
13 Musongati 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
14 Inter Star 4 0 2 2 4:6 2
15 Panthere Noir 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
16 Young Star 5 0 1 4 2:16 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)