Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

Premier League Bank Respublika Arena

Sabah Baku

4 - 1

Araz PFK

Our Tip

Match Events

Rakhmonaliyev U.

(Penalty)

11'

Malouda A.

16'

Aliyev K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Sabah Baku and Araz PFK finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sabah Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Sabah Baku

33%

Draws

27%

Araz PFK

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sabah Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Sabah Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Sabah Baku's way, sitting at 40%.
Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 7%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 68%

Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sabah Baku	Araz PFK
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	20	10
Draws	7	6
Losses	3	14
Goals Scored	1.63	1.14
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.57
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2026 Premier League

Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

2:4

Feb 8, 2026 Premier League

Sabah Baku vs Araz PFK

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 1 - 3

4:1

Oct 25, 2025 Premier League

Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku

Possession: 42% - 58% Cards: 3 - 2

2:2

May 3, 2025 Premier League

Araz PFK vs Sabah Baku

Possession: 50% - 44% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

Mar 4, 2025 Premier League

Sabah Baku vs Araz PFK

Possession: 42% - 52% Cards: 0 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabah Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev K.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Malouda A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.04

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabah Baku 50 / 100

Araz PFK 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sabah Baku Araz PFK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAB Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabah Baku's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Araz PFK let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Sabah Baku stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sabah Baku VS Araz PFK

1.63 Goals Scored 1.14

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.57

75% Over 1.5 86%

63% Over 2.5 57%

0% Over 3.5 14%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15