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Sabail vs Shamakhi

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup ASCO Arena, Baku
Sabail Logo

Sabail

0 - 1
FT
Shamakhi Logo

Shamakhi

Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Msanga A.
57' Event
Balau D.
Penalty Missed
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sabail
35%
Draws
25%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sabail lately — more wins on the board than Shamakhi.
  • Model gives Sabail a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Sabail have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Shamakhi, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabail Shamakhi
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.62 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabail vs Shamakhi
0:1
May 3, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Sabail
1:1
Mar 3, 2025 Premier League
Sabail vs Shamakhi
0:2
Dec 14, 2024 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Sabail
0:0
Oct 5, 2024 Premier League
Sabail vs Shamakhi
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabail Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Msanga A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabail 95 / 100
Shamakhi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabail Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabail's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Sabail went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Shamakhi has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Sabail VS Shamakhi
2.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabail

(Home)
03 Sept
FC Khankendi
1 : 1
Sabail
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
06 May
Zaqatala PFK
0 : 3
Sabail
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
Page 1 of 6

Shamakhi

(Away)
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
17 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 1
Shamakhi
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Cebrayil 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1