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Sabugy vs Atletico Cajazeirense

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sabugy play Atletico Cajazeirense in the Paraibano 2. Atletico Cajazeirense are favorites here. Recently, Sabugy averaged 0.72 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. Atletico Cajazeirense averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Sabugy won 0, Atletico Cajazeirense won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 24, 2025 ended 0:7. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Sabugy and 2.00 for Atletico Cajazeirense. This points to a Atletico Cajazeirense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Sabugy
15%
Draws
71%
Atletico Cajazeirense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico Cajazeirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Sabugy picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Cajazeirense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Sabugy Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico Cajazeirense Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabugy Atletico Cajazeirense
Matches Played 18 37
Wins 2 19
Draws 2 6
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.72 1.54
Goals Conceded 2.39 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2025 Paraibano 2
Sabugy vs Atletico Cajazeirense
0:7
Sep 11, 2023 Paraibano 2
Sabugy vs Atletico Cajazeirense
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabugy 15 / 100
Atletico Cajazeirense 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabugy Atletico Cajazeirense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Cajazeirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Atletico Cajazeirense & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sabugy attacking → ← attacking Atletico Cajazeirense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabugy scored in 39% of their last 18 games.

Atletico Cajazeirense let in goals in 59% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Sabugy went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Cajazeirense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

8 Points in last 5 63
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atletico Cajazeirense961223:1019
2Cruzeiro-PB952215:1317
3Confianca PB944113:716
4Miramar EC943220:815
5Desportiva Guarabira943214:1115
6Sao Paulo Crystal942315:814
7Serrano PB932415:1511
8Spartax922515:238
9Queimadense92169:197
10Sabugy91086:313