Sport Picks
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico
USA
USL Championship Heart Health Park, Sacramento, CA 
Match Events
11'
11'
Ajago F.
46'
46'
Sub
Zelalem G. In: Rennicks J.
Out: Zelalem G.
46'
46'
Sub
Ajago F. In: Malango M.
Out: Ajago F.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Sacramento Republic and New Mexico finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Mexico.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: New Mexico
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and New Mexico come out ahead of Sacramento Republic on wins alone.
- New Mexico are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 16%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 21, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Sacramento Republic
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico
2:1
Sep 30, 2024 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico
4:0
Sep 19, 2024 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Sacramento Republic
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sacramento Republic Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
New Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Harris D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sacramento Republic 23 / 100
New Mexico 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sacramento Republic New Mexico
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NEW Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Sacramento Republic scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
New Mexico has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Sacramento Republic stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sacramento Republic VS New Mexico
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Sacramento Republic
(Home) 26 Jul
Oakland Roots
1 : 3 Sacramento Republic
18 Jul
Charleston
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
12 Jul
Athletic Club Boise
2 : 0 Sacramento Republic
09 Jul
Sacramento Republic
2 : 1 Rhode Island
21 Jun
Sacramento Republic
0 : 1 New Mexico
Page 1 of 6
09 Jul
Sacramento Republic
2 : 1 Rhode Island
21 Jun
Sacramento Republic
0 : 1 New Mexico
07 Jun
Sacramento Republic
2 : 1 Monterey Bay
03 May
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Orange County SC
26 Apr
Sacramento Republic
4 : 0 Spokane Velocity
Page 1 of 3
New Mexico
(Away) 15 Jul
Lexington
1 : 4 New Mexico
12 Jul
El Paso Locomotive
0 : 2 New Mexico
05 Jul
New Mexico
2 : 1 Oakland Roots
02 Jul
New Mexico
3 : 3 Atlante
21 Jun
Sacramento Republic
0 : 1 New Mexico
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Lexington
1 : 4 New Mexico
12 Jul
El Paso Locomotive
0 : 2 New Mexico
21 Jun
Sacramento Republic
0 : 1 New Mexico
30 May
Hartford Athletic
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 May
Colorado Springs
4 : 0 New Mexico
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 28:15 | 35 |
| 2 | Charleston | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32:24 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23:15 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | 21 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 22:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 12:14 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 16 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 19:29 | 15 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:27 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23:46 | 8 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27:19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22:19 | 28 |
| 3 | Colorado Springs | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:15 | 24 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Tulsa | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25:27 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17:27 | 15 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
