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Sacramento Republic vs Lexington

USA USA

USL Championship Heart Health Park, Sacramento, CA
Sacramento Republic Logo

Sacramento Republic

1 - 0
FT
Lexington Logo

Lexington

Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Willey B.
39'
Crisostomo D.
68'
Sub
Rodrigues B. P. In: Tschantret M.
Out: Rodrigues B. P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sacramento Republic in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sacramento Republic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sacramento Republic
20%
Draws
42%
Lexington
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lexington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sacramento Republic lately — more wins on the board than Lexington.
  • Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 16%
Lexington Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sacramento Republic Lexington
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 10 3
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic
0:0
Oct 17, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Sacramento Republic
2:2
Jul 20, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sacramento Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Edwards K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lexington Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sacramento Republic 15 / 100
Lexington 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sacramento Republic Lexington

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lexington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Sacramento Republic remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Sacramento Republic scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Lexington has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.25 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sacramento Republic VS Lexington
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sacramento Republic

(Home)
04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1
Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2
Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3
Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0
San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0
Detroit City
Page 1 of 7

Lexington

(Away)
03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1
El Paso Locomotive
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3
Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0
Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4
Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2
Lexington
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 27 15 7 5 46:25 52
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 33:20 47
3 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 39:29 38
6 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
7 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 38:45 36
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 33:33 34
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 32:44 24
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 27 14 5 8 46:35 47
2 New Mexico 27 13 7 7 41:32 46
3 Sacramento Republic 27 11 11 5 37:25 44
4 Lexington 27 13 4 10 49:33 43
5 FC Tulsa 27 11 9 7 32:25 42
6 Colorado Springs 27 11 7 9 40:37 40
7 Orange County SC 27 10 9 8 36:42 39
8 San Antonio FC 27 9 11 7 29:29 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 27 10 6 11 35:38 36
10 Oakland Roots 27 8 10 9 33:35 34
11 Phoenix Rising 27 8 9 10 36:40 33
12 Monterey Bay 27 5 6 16 29:47 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)