Sport Picks
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Heart Health Park, Sacramento, CA 
Match Events
19'
19'
Wolff T.
Assist: Malango M.
27'
27'
Rodriguez M.
Assist: Crisostomo D.
45'
45'
Sacko I.
Assist: Gomez D.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sacramento Republic
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sacramento Republic carry the better recent record into this one.
- Sacramento Republic are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 68%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
2:2
May 31, 2026 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic
2:0
Apr 5, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
2:0
Sep 14, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
2:2
Apr 19, 2025 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sacramento Republic Compare
Top Goalscorer Wolff T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rodriguez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Phoenix Rising Compare
Top Goalscorer Sacko I.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sacramento Republic 95 / 100
Phoenix Rising 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sacramento Republic Phoenix Rising
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sacramento Republic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Phoenix Rising's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Sacramento Republic went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Sacramento Republic scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sacramento Republic VS Phoenix Rising
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sacramento Republic
(Home) 04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
Page 1 of 6
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0 San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Detroit City
23 Aug
Sacramento Republic
2 : 2 Phoenix Rising
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
Page 1 of 3
Phoenix Rising
(Away) 04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
23 Aug
Sacramento Republic
2 : 2 Phoenix Rising
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
