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Safa Baku vs Gancabasar Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Zamanov E.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Safa Baku and Gancabasar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Safa Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Safa Baku
15%
Draws
64%
Gancabasar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gancabasar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Gancabasar haven't matched Safa Baku's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Gancabasar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Safa Baku have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Gancabasar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Baku Gancabasar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 9 3
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.48 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.03 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Gancabasar
1:0
Dec 19, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Safa Baku
0:1
Oct 28, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Gancabasar vs Safa Baku
0:3
Sep 24, 2025 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Gancabasar
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Zamanov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gancabasar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 10 / 100
Gancabasar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Baku Gancabasar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gancabasar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gancabasar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Safa Baku found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Safa Baku went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Gancabasar
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa Baku

(Home)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
29 Aug
Safa Baku
0 : 1
Imisli FK
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1
Safa Baku
Page 1 of 7

Gancabasar

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Gancabasar
2 : 1
FC Khankendi
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Gancabasar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)