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Safa Baku vs Kapaz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League ASK Arena, Baku
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Safa Baku host Kapaz in the Premier League. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Safa Baku at 1.31 goals for, 1.07 against; Kapaz at 0.76 for, 1.28 against. Head-to-head, Safa Baku have won 1 to Kapaz's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 22, 2005, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.13, favoring Safa Baku. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Safa Baku
15%
Draws
85%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kapaz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Safa Baku come out ahead of Kapaz on wins alone.
  • Kapaz are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Kapaz have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Baku Kapaz
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.31 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2005 Premier League
Kapaz vs Safa Baku
3:0
Aug 20, 2004 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Kapaz
1:3
Sep 13, 2003 Premier League
Kapaz vs Safa Baku
1:0
May 17, 2003 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Kapaz
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 10 / 100
Kapaz 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Baku Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kapaz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa Baku found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Kapaz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Kapaz registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Kapaz
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa Baku

(Home)
11 Oct
Safa Baku
0 : 1
Turan
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
29 Aug
Safa Baku
0 : 1
Imisli FK
Page 1 of 6

Kapaz

(Away)
09 Oct
Araz PFK
0 : 2
Kapaz
20 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 1
SumQayit FK
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
30 Aug
Kapaz
1 : 0
Turan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
4 Turan 7 4 2 1 7:4 14
5 Zira FK 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
8 SumQayit FK 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
9 Gabala 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Imisli FK 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
11 Safa Baku 7 1 0 6 2:12 3
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)